"Long COIVD is a serious illness that can result in chronic conditions requiring comprehensive care. ... Symptoms can last weeks, months, even years. .. Anyone who has had a COVID infection can experience Long COVID... Vaccination is the best tool to prevent Long COVID" https://www.cdc.gov/covid/long-term-effects/index.html?s_cid=SEM.GA:PAI:RG_AO_GA_TM_A18_C-CVD-AfterCOVID-Brd:post%20covid%20syndrome:SEM00001&utm_id=SEM.GA:PAI:RG_AO_GA_TM_A18_C-CVD-AfterCOVID-Brd:post%20covid%20syndrome:SEM00001&gad_source=1

There's a long list of potential symptoms https://www.cdc.gov/covid/long-term-effects/long-covid-signs-symptoms.html - and there's no lab test for Long COVID either.

About 10% of adults who caught COVID in 2024 are developing Long COVID https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/press-release/long-covid-rates-appear-to-be-stabilizing-affecting-about-1-in-10-adults-who-have-had-covid/

About 30,000 Coloradans are likely to be unable to work because of Long COVID https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2024-08-19/long-covid-is-taking-big-toll-on-u-s-workforce (estimate based on assuming national rate is same as Colorado rate)

The thing that surprised me the most is the continuing infection rate this year.

"As of May 29, 2024, the number of new hospital admissions comes from data collected by the Colorado Department of Health and Environment. Previously, this data came from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. However as of May 1, 2024, the federal government no longer requires hospitals to report COVID-19 admissions, making that source of information less complete."

This affects the hospital metrics on https://cdphe.colorado.gov/covid-19/data

Seems like we are in a bit of a surge right now with the KP variants, though. I personally know five people who have it, most in a while. All straightforward symptoms and recovery so far at least.

On a symptom-based hunch, I just ran an expired rapid test that I still had in the cabinet and it popped + in record time. Any of you lovely data-informed folks got the current scoop on whether expired tests are more likely to give a false + or am I wishful thinking that I’m not sick AGAIN?

Hey all,

Looking to get my hair trimmed but COVID irreperably wrecked me after just a single infection and a second one made things worse. Any leads for good hair stylists who are very understanding of COVID mitigation measures in Denver, preferably downtown?

Ideally looking for someone who keeps windows open/has pretty good airflow, or a place where the stylist would be willing to wear a KN95 at the very least.

Thank you!

JN.1 has been weekly doubling across the US and the world, but we have no idea how high it will peak. It's rising faster than BA.5, BQ.1, or any of the XBB's at the same point on its trajectory - but much slower than BA.1. One might guess then that the peak will be lower than the BA.1 peak (Jan '22) but higher than other peaks.

The direct Colorado sewage data is viewable on CDPHE's arcgis portal, here. Unsmoothed sewage numbers on a linear scale are a bit hard to read, but sewage is generally low compared to peak levels. The CDC smooths the data and publishes it by plant number, from which I can make this graph. The recent spike isn't especially reliable though due to the smoothing algorithm, but the general plateau from early September through mid November is surely real. Having a medium-high baseline makes seeing a new-variant surge coming much harder, since it won't have an impact on overall trajectory until it's already quite high in prevalence.

I can then fit Colorado's JN.1 numbers to that sewage directly. This is a little sketchy because our sequencing is both small-sample size and a bit out of date. But it gives this graph, which at first glance actually looks really sensible. But it's showing JN.1 nearly weekly tripling, which is unlikely (though not impossible). The most recent sequences are from November 4 and have JN.1 at around 1.5% of the BA.1 peak - weekly doubling from that point would have it taking around 5.0 weeks or ~December 9 to reach the 50% level (note it's a semi arbitrary scale) which the BA.5 and BQ.1 peaks hit. The 180% growth rate has it at that level ~tomorrow, which is less believable.

JN.1 is from Paris, and there aren't any/many direct flights from Denver to Paris. So it doesn't really make sense that JN.1 would be faster here than other even larger US cities that do have those direct flights like Chicago. But it is possible it's growing faster, due to our lower level of previous covid overall.

Nationwide JN.1 continues to grow rapidly everywhere. It should be around 22% of cases as of today, on pace to pass HV.1 within a few days, and to become actually dominant by mid-December. The CDC has all of BA.2.86 at 8.8% as of 10-14 days ago, which is consistent with that.

But trying to model the future or even the present is always a guessing game. There are multiple factors that can make early growth rates seem faster than they truly are. One of these is the faster turnaround of sequencing from airports, and the general potential for imported variants to spread more rapidly through early travel than they do in the general population. Another, which shouldn't really be a factor for Colorado, is that absolute growth rates drop over time and escape advantage is lost when there's another variant simultaneously surging. JN.1's growth has been remarkably consistent though.

In theory Paris should be a few weeks ahead of everywhere else, and so far I do not believe they've seen any increase in hospitalizations. JN.1 is a hyper-escape variant that will cause an even higher degree of breakthroughs and reinfections than any previous variant, so just from that alone we'd expect a per-infection drop in severity. But BA.2.86 itself could easily also have a lower baseline severity, due to either spike mutations directly or its lack of ORF evolution (the nonstructural proteins that can suppress the immune system or help the virus reproduce more efficiently within cells). And on top of that, JN.1's escape mutation makes it significantly less infective than its BA.2.86.1 parent.

The effectiveness of 2023 infection or vaccines at preventing infection should drop very significantly as JN.1 takes over. It's unclear how effective vaccination alone will be. Antibody numbers imply that the 2023 dose is a lot better than nothing, but likely to still fall well short of highly protective.

I made an appointment to get my booster at my local King Soopers online. It didn’t ask me for my insurance information which I thought was odd, but oh well. I’ll deal with it when I get there.

Well I get there today and it turns out they don’t take my insurance and it’s going to be $130!

It’s not a problem for me because I can go to Costco where they take my insurance but what about the people that are high risk that don’t have insurance.

It left a bad taste in my mouth because they are advertising free flu shots, but it feels like everyone wants to forget that Covid even exists anymore! Any thoughts?

Here

Clicking your way down the big buttons on the left hand side regularly is a pretty good way of keeping up with things.

​

CDPHE has removed the datasets that I was using to generate the variant graphs, and I don't really have any interest in trying to rebuild them from other data sources, so I guess it's time to stop doing the updates. There is still 3.5 years of (now static) data stored on my dashboard, linked from all of my previous posts. It's been fun.

Thanks to u/johannz and u/Brock_Lobstweiler for manually approving all the graph posts, and u/jdorje for the deep dives into variant data.

Hey all,

Many people around me are getting Covid but they aren't showing up positive (they told me they're only testing once with an at-home test, which lol). They only know because other people they've hung out with are testing repeatedly and letting them know they're probably infected.

My question is: Does anyone know where I can get a PCR test in Denver, preferably the Cap Hill area? Also: Is there such a thing as a rapid PCR test (meaning, a PCR test that'll show results in as little as 15 minutes to a few hours, preferably a wait time no longer than a day)?

AFC Urgent Care has rapid testing, but I don't know if they do PCR testing. I'm concerned that if I go get a "rapid test" from them, it'll be the same as an at-home test.

Any leads would really help! Thanks.

I showed up to Walgreens tonight with my two kids in tow to their appointment, only to be told they didn't have any pediatric doses (despite confirming my appointment).

Does anyone know anywhere to get them for kids 6 and under?

I had an appointment for tomorrow for the 2023-2024 Moderna vaccine. CVS cancelled it, saying they don’t have the vaccine available.

Who here received the vaccine this week in the Denver metro area, and can recommend a pharmacy that actually has doses? Moderna is preferred.

Thank you!!

Is there a way of taking the wastewater data and figuring out how many people that translates to? I’m looking for a “1 in x people are currently infected”, and I can’t figure out a way to do this. I remember seeing this number early-on, but of course it doesn’t seem to exist anymore.

Long COVID hasn't been easy to diagnose as symptoms vary considerably. (source)

A new study identifies "irregular" immune system cells (T and B) and lower cortisol levels as key indicators of Long COVID. Knowing this is a precursor to future tests.

My opinion: Good because if there is a cause we can find and treat it, instead of just addressing symptoms - which may or may not be effective.

Popular article: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/long-covid-differences-blood-test-study-finds-rcna116871

Study (paywall): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06651-y

Updated COVID vaccines seem to be in limited supply, so make an appointment.

Get four free test kits (per address) from https://special.usps.com/testkits. I tossed our older tests because then I won't need to look for expiration dates. (EDIT: u/dorje says that was a mistake. Sigh. Go ahead and use your old tests!)

One of the key symptoms of the current variant seems to be a high fever, perhaps 102.

Save time and get a flu shot at the same time, or wait a couple months for flu protection extending to the end of the season. CDC has a "seasonal outlook" page. https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html

Also, there's an RSV vaccine. Keep that shot a couple weeks away from either of the others.

Here's the link: https://special.usps.com/testkits

One of my former coworkers wife went down hard with Covid early in the pandemic and was hospitalized for months. She eventually improved and was released about a year ago. She lost the battle last night. She left behind 5 kids, and a husband at 41 years old. Fucking tragic.