/r/boxoffice
A place to talk about the box office and the movie business, both domestically and internationally.
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Wiki pages
Common box office questions FAQ
Historical Box Office Data - 1950-1958
AMAs
Essentials
Box Office Pro - best known for their long-range forecasts of domestic openings.
Box Office Report - a source for box office updates, with great pages comparing a movie's opening weekend numbers to its trailer views and preview night results.
Box Office Theory - popular box office forum.
World of KJ - another popular box office forum.
The Trades
Deadline - has the most comprehensive box office analysis of all the trades.
International Box Office
entgroup.cn - reports on the Chinese box office regularly.
Korean Film Council - updates on Korean box office numbers.
InsideKino - mostly german box office though it has admissions and revenue data on a variety of other, mostly European, markets.
[Boxoffice Turkiye](boxofficeturkiye.com) - Turkish Box Office
/r/boxoffice
So Lilo & Stitch spent ~53M actually filming in Hawaii and an unknown amount elsewhere working on VFX. Either way I believe it supports the contention the film is going to have a lower budget than other recent live action adaptations.
Wrecking Crew is an Amazon film staring Momoa and Bautista
#Daily Box Office(January 14th 2024)
The market hits ¥41.9M/$57.1M which is up +2% from yesterday and down -8% versus last week.
Sonic 3 grossed $0.23M on Tuesday and crossed $2M. First Monday +66% versus Sonic 1 as its only a matter of time before Sonic 3 outgrosses the first movies total. At the lattest this should happen on Friday/Saturday.
With Spring Festival rapidly approaching this week should see a lot of promotional material start to hit for movies. 2nd trailers, posters etc... Followed by pre-sales starting next week.
Tuesday saw the release of Detective Chinatown 1900's PLF format posters. The movie will release in IMAX, Dolby, CGS and CINITY
Today also saw the release of a behind the scenes video of Operation Leviathan which has now been renamed to Operation Hadal. This is rumored to be one of the more expensive Chinese movies ever made.
Here's a look how this years movies stack on Maoyans anticipation metric vs most other post covid Spring Festival blockbusters.
https://i.imgur.com/Cxf1GsB.png
Detective Chinatown 1900 and Ne Zha 2 have already exceeded the final number of YOLO which went on to be last years Champion. Detective Chinatown 1900 will exceed Pegasus 2's final number tomorrow with 2 weeks till release making it more anticipated by this metric than any movie last year. Then it will remain to be seen if it can push above 1M to join Hi Mom!, Battle At Lake Changjin II and 2023's duo of The Wandering Earth 2 and Ful River Red.
The only movie missing from the chart from the post Covid years is Detective Chinatown 3 which would break the scale with its massive final number of 4.4M. A number far beyond any other movie on this metric ever.
Province map of the day:
Octopus with Broken Arms finnaly sweeps after Big World loses its last holdout province.
In Metropolitan cities:
Octopus with Broken Arms wins Beijing, Chongqing, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Suzhou, Nanjing and Hangzhou and Shanghai
City tiers:
Honey Money Phony overtakes Big World in T4.
Tier 1: Octopus with Broken Arms>Honey Money Phony>Big World
Tier 2: Octopus with Broken Arms>Honey Money Phony>Big World
Tier 3: Octopus with Broken Arms>Honey Money Phony>Big World
Tier 4: Octopus with Broken Arms>Honey Money Phony>Big World
# | Movie | Gross | %YD | %LW | Screenings | Admisions(Today) | Total Gross | Projected Total Gross |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Octopus with Broken Arms | $1.83M | -1% | -15% | 89604 | 0.32M | $97.17M | $112M-$119M |
2 | Honey Money Phony | $1.15M | +1% | -7% | 62053 | 0.25M | $41.98M | $52M-$59M |
3 | Big World | $0.98M | -3% | -36% | 63743 | 0.18M | $91.92M | $100M-$103M |
4 | Fake Dad | $0.27M | +4% | 29527 | 0.05M | $2.75M | $4M-$6M | |
5 | Sonic 3 | $0.23M | +22% | 19209 | 0.04M | $2.21M | $4M-$6M | |
6 | Hot Pot Artist | $0.20M | +11% | -30% | 13872 | 0.05M | $4.70M | $6M-$7M |
7 | The Proscecutor | $0.20M | -12% | -20% | 11850 | 0.04M | $33.36M | $34M-$36M |
8 | Detective Conan 7 | $0.18M | +13% | +14% | 12678 | 0.04M | $15.88M | $17M-$19M |
9 | Beyond The Sin | $0.12M | -14% | 21972 | 0.02M | $1.23M | $2M-$3M | |
10 | Mufasa: The Lion King | $0.10M | +11% | +23% | 6312 | 0.02M | $14.99M | $16M-$17M |
*YD=Yesterday, LW=Last Week, |
Pre-Sales map for tomorrow
Big World's dominance on pre-sales continues to crumble.
https://i.imgur.com/BZ8Dk9w.png
###Big World
Big World falls below $1M for the first time in its run today as it nears $92M
WoM figures:
Maoyan: 9.3, Taopiaopiao: 9.6, Douban: 7.2
Gender Split(M-W): 15-85
Age Split: Under 20: 18.2%, 20-24: 38.2%, 25-29: 22.4%, 30-34: 10.7%, 35-39: 4.7%, Over 40: 5.8%
City Tiers: T1: 16.4%, T2: 51.5%, T3: 15.0%, T4: 17.0%
Most Popular Province: Guangdong: 12.3%
Most Popular City: Shanghai: 4.8%
Screen Distribution Split: Regular: 97.7%, Rest: 3.3%
Language split: Mandarin: 100%
|#|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|WED|THU|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |Second Week|$3.02M|$4.75M|$3.59M|$1.60M|$1.53M|$1.53M|$1.46M|$83.60M |Third Week|$1.76M|$2.52M|$2.05M|$1.01M|$0.98M|/|/|$91.92M |%± LW|-42%|-47%|-43%|-37%|-36%|/|/|/|
Scheduled showings update for Big World for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 63371 | $110k | $0.92M-$0.94M |
Wednesday | 63465 | $123k | $0.90M-$0.98M |
Thursday | 41503 | $44k | $0.83M-$0.93M |
###Octopus with Broken Arms
Octopus with Broken Arms meanwhile almost flat from yesterday continues to race towards $100M. It should cross the mark on Thursday.
WoM figures:
Maoyan: 9.0 , Taopiaopiao: 9.4, Douban: 6.1
Gender Split(M-W): 50-50
Age Split: Under 20: 5.7%, 20-24: 24.0%, 25-29: 26.8%, 30-34: 16.5%, 35-39: 11.8%, Over 40: 15.2%
City Tiers: T1: 25.8%, T2: 49.2%, T3: 12.9%, T4: 12.1%
Most Popular Province: Guangdong: 14.0%
Most Popular City: Shanghai: 8.8%
Screen Distribution Split: Regular: 90.5%, IMAX: 7.3, Rest: 2.2%
Language split: Mandarin: 100%
|#|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|WED|THU|FRI|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |Second Week|$6.77M|$4.97M|$2.26M|$2.16M|$2.17M|$2.14M|$2.66M|$85.73M |Third Week|$4.23M|$3.55M|$1.83M|$1.83M|/|/|/|$97.17M |%± LW|-38%|-29%|-19%|-15%|/|/|/|/|
Scheduled showings update for Octopus with Broken Arms for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 88693 | $111k | $1.73M-$1.77M |
Wednesday | 89649 | $133k | $1.66M-$1.86M |
Thursday | 60124 | $23k | $1.53M-$1.79M |
###Mufasa: The Lion King
Mufasa continues persom well late into its run. Tomorrow it will cross $15M
WoM figures:
Maoyan: 9.0, Taopiaopiao: 9.3, Douban: 6.6
Gender Split(M-W): 38-62
Age Split: Under 20: 5.0%, 20-24: 17.4%, 25-29: 21.1%, 30-34: 20.9%, 35-39: 15.8%, Over 40: 19.8%
City Tiers: T1: 29.3%, T2: 52.4%, T3: 9.8%, T4: 8.5%
Most Popular Province: Guangdong: 14.3%
Most Popular City: Shanghai: 10.6%
Screen Distribution Split: Regular: 87.4%, IMAX: 7.8%, Rest: 2.0%
Language split: English Version: 48.5%, Mandarin: 51.5%
|#|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|WED|THU|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |Third Week|$0.10M|$0.35M|$0.34M|$0.06M|$0.08M|$0.10M|$0.11M|$14.12M |Fourth Week|$0.12M|$0.27M|$0.29M|$0.09M|$0.10M|/|/|$14.99M |%± LW|+20%|-23%|-14%|+50%|+23%|/|/|/|
Scheduled showings update for Mufasa: The Lion King for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 6243 | $17k | $0.09M-$0.11M |
Wednesday | 6743 | $14k | $0.09M-$0.11M |
Thursday | 2709 | $3k | $0.08M-$0.10M |
#Other stuff:
The next Holywood release is Captain America 4 which will release on February 14th.
#Release Schedule:
A table including upcoming movies in the next month alongside trailers linked in the name of the movie, Want To See data from both Maoyan and Taopiaopiao alongside the Gender split and genre.
Remember Want To See is not pre-sales. Its just an anticipation metric. A checkbox of sorts saying your interested in an upcoming movie.
Not all movies are included since a lot are just too small to be worth covering.
January:
January for now remains baren. It will be an incredibly backloaded month with Spring Festival starting on the 29th. All 6 movies have now been officialy confirmed.
The Next Boonie Bears movie. China's prime animation franchise which has been a Spring Festival mainstay for a decade now with next year being the 11th consecutive year a Boonie Bears movie releases for Spring Festival. The franchise has seen a steady increase in box office with last years movie hitting a franchise peak $280M+
The Legend of the Condor Heroes. A longtime anticipated Marshal arts movie which will look to make good on the fan hype behind it.
Ne Zha 2 the follow up to Nezha from 2019 which to this day remains the biggest animation of all time in a single market with $740M+ will be one of the prime contenders for the crown.
Detective Chinatown 1900. The Sequel or better said Prequel will try to wash away the incredibly bad reception of DC3. A movie which opened to a record breaking $399M across 3 days beating out End Game's US opening. But only grossed $680M+.
And last and maybe least Operation Hadal. A followup to 2018's massive success Operation Red Sea which grossed $579M. This movie will look to push back against the ever decresing gross of military movies in the past 2 years.
Movie | Maoyan WTS | Daily Increase | Taopiaopiao WTS | Daily Increase | M/W % | Genre | Release Date | 3rd party media projections |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detective Chinatown 1900 | 772k | +35k | 211k | +18k | 36/64 | Drama/Comedy | 29.01 | $436-512M |
Ne Zha 2 | 668k | +27k | 358k | +15k | 38/62 | Animation/Fantasy | 29.01 | $518-614M |
The Legend of the Condor Heroes | 534k | +17k | 1041k | +16k | 22/78 | Martial Arts | 29.01 | $106-123M |
Creation Of The Gods Part 2 | 505k | +27k | 1204k | +27k | 43/57 | War/Fantasy | 29.01 | $382-410M |
Boonie Bears:Future Reborn | 279k | +9k | 150k | +4k | 35/65 | Animation/Comedy | 29.01 | $205-218M |
Operation Hadal | 166k | +9k | 177k | +7k | 41/59 | Drama/Action | 29.01 | $68-109M |
February
Captain America 4 is confirmed for a February 14th release.
Movie | Maoyan WTS | Daily Increase | Taopiaopiao WTS | Daily Increase | M/W % | Genre | Release Date | 3rd party media projections |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Captain America 4: Brave New World | 97k | +4k | 81k | +4k | 52/48 | Comic Book/Action | 14.02 | $18-43M |
As of January 2025, there are 4 films currently scheduled for December 2026: Shrek 5, Ice Age 6, Dune Messiah and Jumanji 4. 3/4 of the films (Shrek, Jumanji, Dune) had their most recent predecessor gross over $700m worldwide, with Ice Age having its third and fourth film gross over $700m. With this number of massive franchises having films stacked in a single month within 12 days of each other, could the competition at least one of these underperform?
The holiday season is usually a time where many families go to the movies with others, but usually most years don't have this many popular franchises have films coming out in a single month. This will make people choose which one to see out of the 4, potentially causing some of the others to underperform. And if Sony decides to move Spider-Man 4 to December, that will make things even worse.
Out of all four that could underperform, I would say either Ice Age 6 or Jumanji 4 would be most likely. Dune Messiah is coming out during awards season which could help its gross especially if better than the other two, and even if Shrek 5 has negative reviews it would still likely have a massive opening weekend as it would be 16.5 years since the last Shrek film (longer than the gaps between Jurassic Park-Jurassic World (14 years) and Return of the Jedi-The Phantom Menace (16 years) , with no new media (television shows) excluding Puss in Boots. Millennials and Gen Z would likely come out in droves opening weekend, the former bringing their Gen Alpha kids to see it.