/r/boxoffice
A place to talk about the box office and the movie business, both domestically and internationally.
Posts with the latest box office numbers, analysis, or speculation are encouraged. Movie business news is also allowed, such as a potential merger or quarterly financial results. Memes and humor posts are also not allowed. For such content, please use r/boxofficecirclejerk.
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Wiki pages
Common box office questions FAQ
Historical Box Office Data - 1950-1958
AMAs
Essentials
Box Office Pro - best known for their long-range forecasts of domestic openings.
Box Office Report - a source for box office updates, with great pages comparing a movie's opening weekend numbers to its trailer views and preview night results.
Box Office Theory - popular box office forum.
World of KJ - another popular box office forum.
The Trades
Deadline - has the most comprehensive box office analysis of all the trades.
International Box Office
entgroup.cn - reports on the Chinese box office regularly.
Korean Film Council - updates on Korean box office numbers.
InsideKino - mostly german box office though it has admissions and revenue data on a variety of other, mostly European, markets.
[Boxoffice Turkiye](boxofficeturkiye.com) - Turkish Box Office
/r/boxoffice
Captain America brave new world-400 million
Minecraft-700 million Thunderbolts-600 million
Mission impossible 8-650 million
How too train your dragon-1 billion (I think this will be the biggest surprise of next year)
Jurassic world 4-950 million
Superman-800 million
Fantastic 4-900 million
Michael-1.3 billion
Zootopia 2-1.5 billion
Avatar 3-2 billion
2026 Mario 2-1 billion
Avengers doomsday-2 billion
Mandalorian and grogu-500 million
Toy Story 5-800 million
Shrek 5-1.8 billion
New Christopher Nolan movie-850 million (would’ve done a billion if it weren’t for the competition)
Spider man 4-1.9 billion
Lotr the hunt for gollumn-500 million
Dune 3-900 million
Dreamworks “Dog Man” is set to be released in theaters on January 31st, 2025 which were 2 months left for the movie to come out in theaters. It is based on the books from Dav Pilkey since its debut of the first book in 2016 and a spin off to Captain Underpants especially with the Captain Underpants The First Epic Movie came out in 2017. The movie earned positive reviews from critics though middling WOM where it had a low budget for DreamWorks with $38M where it opened at $23.9M, debuting #2 behind Wonder Woman that opened at $103.3M and finished its domestic run of $73.9M and $125.4M worldwide, making one of the lowest DreamWorks Animation Films of all time along with Spirit Untaimed, Ruby Gillman, The Road to El Dorado and Sinbad Legend of the Seven Seas.
The problem is Dog Man release date isn’t a good idea on January 31, 2025 where it could face major problems like DreamWorks isn’t good at marketing its films, kids are still at schools after winter break and MLK Day Weekend especially with the Super Bowl 2025 happening next week although it might have a boast for Presidents Day Weekend when it faces against Captain America Brave New World and no family competition against till Snow White in March. It opens 2 weeks after Paddington In Peru debut on the MLK Day Weekend which isn’t that interesting in the US although the UK loves Paddington which is one of the most beloved franchises in the UK. Depending on its performance for Paddington in Peru debut in the US on January 17, it might face strong holdovers that had a holiday boast either if it’s going to be Sonic The Hedgehog 3, Mufasa The Lion King or both of them which might impact its performance for Dog Man.
But we’ll see how well can DreamWork’s Dog Man does at the box office which should do better then Captain Underpants if the budget if lower compared to Captain Underpants that had a budget of $38M
A film defied gravity, while another fought for a thumbs up on America.
Wicked easily topped the box office, breaking the record for a live-action Broadway adaptation. Gladiator II arrived after so many delays, but it proved that its real money will have to come from the overseas markets. There was another release, Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin, which had a good start in less than 1,000 theaters.
The Top 10 earned a combined $201.5 million this weekend. That's up a massive 84.7% from last year, when The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes repeated, while Napoleon surprised by outgrossing Wish.
Debuting atop, Universal's Wicked earned a colossal $112.5 million in 3,888 theaters. That's easily the biggest debut for a Broadway musical adaptation, outgrossing Into the Woods ($31 million). It was also the second highest debut for a live-action musical, behind Beauty and the Beast ($174.7 million). It's also the fourth biggest for a musical, behind that, Frozen II ($130 million) and The Lion King ($191 million).
Needless to say, Wicked is one of the biggest Broadway successes in history, being the second highest grossing musical just behind The Lion King. With a soundtrack of iconic songs like "Popular" and "Defying Gravity", its popularity has grown outside theater. A film adaptation was imminent, and Universal was working for years in getting it to the big screen. The first real update of progress was in 2016, when Universal reported that Stephen Daldry would adapt an adaptation to be released in 2019. It didn't materialize, and Universal focused on a Cats adaptation instead, which was a colossal disaster.
A key to its success was casting Ariana Grande, a huge pop star, in the role of Glinda. While not all singers hit it out of the park at the box office (Lady Gaga on Joker), it was important that a musical would have a big name attached. Jon M. Chu, who delivered quality with In the Heights, also managed to translate the visuals to the big screen in an efficient way. And while there were concerns over the need to split the film into two, the reviews were just so strong (90% on RT) that it confirmed that people would not have a problem. Basically, it erased any fears and promised that it would be a faithful adaptation.
According to Universal, 70% of the audience was 25 and over, with 38% 35 and over. Unsurprisingly, it massively skewed female; women consisted of 72% of its audience. They gave it a strong "A" on CinemaScore, which fits nicely with its great reviews. Though the film faces competition from Moana 2 this weekend, it should have enough gas to hit $350 million domestically. A big win all around.
Paramount's Gladiator II arrived just 24 years after the original knocked it out of the park at the box office. The film earned $55 million in 3,573 theaters. That's above the original Gladiator ($34.8 million), but it's below that film in terms of inflation adjusted ($63.8 million). It's also not even Ridley Scott's best debut, as it was below Hannibal ($58 million).
The reason why this number is not really impressive, is because of the standard set by its predecessor. The original Gladiator was a colossal hit back in 2000, closing with $187 million domestically and $460 million worldwide. On top of that, it also won the Oscar for Best Picture. Needless to say, if you're gonna make a sequel to that film, it needs to deliver quality.
And the big problem with trying to make a quality sequel is basically its own existence. For years, Scott mentioned the possibility of a Gladiator sequel, and every time it was met with the same response; is this film truly necessary? Especially after the original had Maximus and Commudus die in their climactic fight? Your producers were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn't stop to think if they should.
A Gladiator sequel without Russell Crowe and Joaquin Phoenix already has a tough hill to climb. For that, Scott assembled a few actors but that led to a mixed bag. Denzel Washington is definitely a big name, but Pedro Pascal still hasn't been able to prove himself as a draw. And while it was appreciated that it could connect to the original by bringing back Connie Nielsen and Derek Jacobi, they're still nowhere near as iconic as the characters played by Crowe and Phoenix.
And then there's Paul Mescal. Mescal, without a doubt, is a fantastic actor (getting a Best Actor nom before you turn 30 is very impressive). But Mescal has only been known for indie filmmaking, lacking the presence and power that Crowe had in the title role 24 years ago. In the eyes of the public, he's still a stranger. And some of the reviews mention that despite his commitment, he feels miscast.
Scott himself has been a mixed bag, especially on recent years. He hasn't had a box office hit since The Martian in 2015 (Alien: Covenant wasn't a flop, but it wasn't a hit either), with the rest of his films flopping or underwhelming. And that can be attributed to their unfavorable response, as it's clear he's not picky about the films he wants to make. While reviews were favorable, they're still not really great (72% on RT ain't much). And because the budget is reported at $250 million (with some estimates going higher at $310 million), it also makes the debut even less impressive.
According to Paramount, 61% of the audience was male. It appears that Mescal's casting helped with the young sector, as 49% of the audience was in the 18-34 demographic. They gave it a lukewarm "B" on CinemaScore, which is far below the original's "A". It's very unlikely Gladiator II can outgross the original's $187 million domestic gross, even with the incoming Thanksgiving weekend. For now, a total around $140 million is likely. I guess it's thumbs down here.
Also, please. Stop trying to make Glicked happen. It's not gonna happen.
Last week's champ Red One added $13.2 million this weekend. That's a very bad 59% drop, despite the fine word of mouth. Through ten days, the film has earned $52.8 million, and it looks like the fight for $100 million will continue. If it fails to cross that milestone, that'd be disappointing.
In fourth place, Angel Studios' Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin earned $5 million in 1,900 theaters. That's a very solid debut, and with an "A" on CinemaScore, it could get close to $20 million by the end of its run.
Venom: The Last Dance dropped 47% and grossed $3.8 million. The film has earned $133.7 million, and looks to finish below $150 million.
Lionsgate's The Best Christmas Pageant recovered from its rough drop and dipped 35%, earning $3.4 million. That takes its domestic total to $25.5 million.
A24's Heretic faced another rough drop. This time, it fell 55%, adding $2.2 million. The film has made $24.7 million, and it's now gonna finish below $30 million.
DreamWorks' The Wild Robot fell 50% (its worst drop so far), adding $2.1 million. The film's domestic total stands at $140.8 million, and it will end its run soon as Moana 2 begins.
After holding very well, Focus Features' Conclave collapsed 60%, earning $1.1 million this weekend. Nevertheless, $29 million is nothing to scoff at for an adult drama.
Rounding up the Top Ten was Smile 2, which had the worst drop in the Top 10. It fell by 62%, adding $1.1 million. The film has earned $67.7 million, and it's gonna miss on the $70 million milestone.
Searchlight's A Real Pain does not appear to have much life in its wide expansion. The film fell 51%, earning just $1 million. The film has made just $4.9 million, and unless it gains big Oscar noms, it's likely to miss $10 million.
#OVERSEAS
While Wicked easily won the domestic crown, Gladiator II was still the champion in the rest of the world.
Gladiator II added $50.5 million overseas, taking its worldwide total to $220.5 million. Its biggest debut was in China, but it earned just $3 million. The best markets are the UK ($23.1M), France ($17.7M), Spain ($11.9M), Mexico ($10.1M) and Australia ($8.9M). While it won't impress domestically, it appears that the overseas markets gave it thumbs up. The film should pass $400 million worldwide, and $500 million is up in the air.
Wicked debuted with $50 million overseas, for a $162.5 million worldwide debut. That represents 64 markets, and while it still has some big markets left, it was a mixed bag. Some markets were strong, while others were quite soft. The best debuts were in the UK ($17.6M), Australia ($6.7M), South Korea ($4.7M), Mexico ($4M), Brazil ($1.8M), Philippines ($1.7M), Spain ($1.7M), Italy ($1.5M), and Indonesia ($1.1M). It will continue opening in other big markets, but it's clear this will be a domestic-heavy film.
Red One continues disappointing overseas. It added only $8.7 million, taking its worldwide total to a meager $117 million. Its best markets are the UK ($7.5M), Mexico ($6.2M), Germany ($4.4M), Australia ($3.3M) and Spain ($3.2M).
Venom: The Last Dance added $7.8 million this weekend, taking its worldwide total to $456.3 million.
Still playing just in the UK and Ireland, Paddington in Peru added $5.4 million, earning a big $31 million in the market.
#FILMS THAT ENDED THEIR RUN THIS WEEK
Movie | Release Date | Studio | Domestic Opening | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total | Budget |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Transformers One | Sep/20 | Paramount | $24,613,970 | $59,054,170 | $128,515,817 | $75M |
#THIS WEEKEND
Disney is prepared to unleash another animation beast during the Thanksgiving weekend.
And that is Moana 2, which arrives 8 years after the original earned $643 million worldwide. But its real popularity has grown in subsequent years, as it's become the most streamed film on Disney+, as well as one of the biggest in any other streaming service. Needless to say, the audience is ready to embark in a new adventure. The current Thanksgiving opening weekend record belongs to Frozen ($67.3 million three-day, $93.5 million five-day) while Frozen II has the biggest 5-day weekend at $125 million. If pre-sales are any indication, Moana 2 will easily break that record.
In limited release, A24 is releasing Luca Guadagnino's Queer, starring Daniel Craig. Guadagnino is coming off Challengers, which became his biggest film at the box office. Nevertheless, Queer is not coming close to those figures. It's positioned as an awards player, although its reviews (77% on RT) aren't as strong as other fall contenders.
#ANNOUNCEMENT
If actuals are delayed to Tuesday due to Thanksgiving, the post will come on Tuesday. But it should be up on Monday if it's like last year.
For the past few years, there have been some successful video game adaptations release in the month of April. 2021 had Mortal Kombat, 2022 had Sonic 2, and 2023 had Mario.
This year had nothing in April, but 2025 will have both Minecraft and Until Dawn, and 2026 will have the Mario sequel.
Sonic 3 will probably do well, so I could see Sonic 4 going into April 2027 since the rate they make these movies is two years plus a few months, and the Zelda movie could maybe be April 2028.
Is this just going to be the norm going forward? It seems to be the sweet spot for video game-based films, so perhaps that’s what studios will go with whenever they make one.
Wicked: After looking today, it is obvious that this is going to be a family driven film as the drop today is pretty standard for a family film. Wicked does have a Monday that is 7% bigger than Gladiator 2 first Monday so it is still beating that pace.
Gladiator 2: Pretty massive drop from last Monday as it drop by 67%. The legs are starting to collapse way too early especially with Moana around the corner.
MHA: Is just 60k dollars from becoming the biggest MHA movie in SK.
Venom The Last Dance: A 63% drop from last Monday as the movie continues to struggle from screen lost.
Presales
Moana 2: Has jumped up to 150,351 presales which is a really terrific increase of 45,102 admits. One more day and I definitely see it hitting over 200k presales.
http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/eng/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY
#Daily Box Office(November 25th 2024)
The market hits ¥41M/$5.7M which is down -63% from yesterday and up +58% versus last week.
Her Story has a great drop into Monday. Best in the top 10.
Kraven the Hunter has been confirmed for a December 14th release.
Province map of the day:
Her Story back to full control on Monday.
In Metropolitan cities:
Her Story wins Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Chengdu, Suzhou, Guangzhou and Hangzhou
City tiers:
Her Story remains on top in every tier
Tier 1: Her Story>To Gather Around>Gladiator 2
Tier 2: Her Story>To Gather Around>Crayon Shin-chan 2024
Tier 3: Her Story>To Gather Around>Crayon Shin-chan 2024
Tier 4: Her Story>To Gather Around>Crayon Shin-chan 2024
# | Movie | Gross | %YD | %LW | Screenings | Admisions(Today) | Total Gross | Projected Total Gross |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Her Story(Release) | $3.15M | -53% | 92802 | 0.55M | $24.51M | $69M-$76M | |
2 | To Gather Around | $0.69M | -63% | -42% | 50494 | 0.13M | $22.04M | $35M-$37M |
3 | Crayon Shin-chan 2024 | $0.55M | -80% | 56825 | 0.11M | $9.20M | $16M-$17M | |
4 | Gladiator 2(Release) | $0.37M | -60% | 28868 | 0.06M | $3.44M | $6M-$7M | |
5 | Yuanyang Lou | $0.19M | -58% | -44% | 21746 | 0.04M | $14.00M | $16M-$17M |
6 | Venom: The Last Dance | $0.15M | -72% | -67% | 18641 | 0.03M | $93.42M | $94M-$95M |
7 | Harry Potter 7 | $0.13M | -78% | 11204 | 0.02M | $2.25M($18.94M) | $2M-$4M | |
8 | Cesium Fallout | $0.12M | -63% | -73% | 14152 | 0.02M | $35.11M | $36M-$38M |
*YD=Yesterday, LW=Last Week, |
Pre-Sales map for tomorrow
Her Story continues to dominate pre-sales into Tuesday.
https://i.imgur.com/5dIdxbc.png
###Venom: The Last Dance
Venom continues with pretty harsh drops into the new week as it reaches the last stretch of its run.
WoM figures: Maoyan: 8.8 , Taopiaopiao: 8.6 , Douban:6.5
|#|WED|THU|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |Fourth Week|$0.62M|$0.61M|$0.87M|$2.27M|$1.65M|0.46M|$0.41M|$91.09M |Fifth Week|$0.37M|$0.34M|$0.30M|$0.63M|$0.54M|$0.15M|/|$93.42M |%± LW|-40%|-44%|-65%|-72%|-67%|-67%|/|/|
Scheduled showings update for Venom 3 for the next few days:
Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
---|---|---|---|
Today | 9213 | 1k | $0.11M-$0.16M |
Tuesday | 18237 | 8k | $0.12M-$0.13M |
Wednesday | 11554 | 2k | $0.11M-$0.12M |
--- |
#Other stuff:
The next Holywood movie to release will be Gladiator 2 on the 22nd and Moana 2 on November 29th.
Then in December Wicked will release on the 6th followed by The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim and Kraven the Hunter on the 14th and Mufasa on December 20th.
Sonic 3 meanwhile will likely not release on the 20th as in the US but perhaps a week later or potentialy in early January.
Moana 2
Moana 2 keeps close to Moana 1 in pre-sales but has now fallen behind Inside Out 2. Tomorrow we get the first official opening day projections.
Note on Moana 1. Pre-sales data for it is sadly not available from Maoyan which means the numbers are taken from the BOT thread from back in 2016 courtesy of Olive. Due to the nature of when they were posted they do not exactly allign with the exact days but it should be close enough.
|Days till release | Moana 2 | Moana |Inside Out 2 |Wish|Despicable Me 4|Kung Fu Panda 4|
:----------- |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|
12|$8k/7512 | / |/ |/ |/ |$5k/7147
11|$10k/8448| / |/ |/ |/ |$8k/8201
10|$12k/9955| / |/ |/ |/ |$16k/10175
9|$15k/10890| / |$1k/2554 |/ |/ |$22k/11815|
8|$18k/11869| / |$5k/7023 |/ |/ |$25k/12281|
7|$23k/12813| / |$13k/10139 |/ |$11k/10992 |$26k/13080|
6|$37k/14639|$39k |$25k/12948 |$1.2k/1276|$42k/25432 |$30k/14235|
5|$54k/16477|$55k |$42k/15205 |$9.3k/4165|$93k/31857 |$34k/16102|
4|$74k/18809|$75k |$65k/17987 |$19k/5516 |$168k/37449 |$48k/18997|
3|$97k/23329|$100k|$104k/24579|$37k/10608|$277k/45317 |$84k/27108|
2| |$155k|$167k/34281|$67k/20149|$438k/57555 |$132k/43076|
1| |$240k|$282k/59326|$114k/33490|$679k/83657 |$230k/71509|
0| |$489k|$678k/80153|$227k/44234|$1.59M/105128|$579k/98338|
Opening Day| |$1.92M |$2.31M |$0.79M |$5.72M |$2.95M
*Gross/Screenings
#Release Schedule:
A table including upcoming movies in the next month alongside trailers linked in the name of the movie, Want To See data from both Maoyan and Taopiaopiao alongside the Gender split and genre.
Remember Want To See is not pre-sales. Its just an anticipation metric. A checkbox of sorts saying your interested in an upcoming movie.
Not all movies are included since a lot are just too small to be worth covering.
November:
Movie | Maoyan WTS | Daily Increase | Taopiaopiao WTS | Daily Increase | M/W % | Genre | Release Date | 3rd party media projections |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moana 2 | 83k | +2k | 79k | +1k | 29/71 | Comedy/Animation | 29.11 | $20-28M |
December:
Movie | Maoyan WTS | Daily Increase | Taopiaopiao WTS | Daily Increase | M/W % | Genre | Release Date | 3rd party media projections |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NIE XIAOQIAN | 68k | +1k | 28k | +1k | 31/69 | Animation/Fantasy | 06.12 | $2-4M |
More Than a Game | 67k | +1k | 21k | +1k | 29/71 | Documentary | 06.12 | |
Wicked | 19k | +1k | 14k | +1k | 38/62 | Musical/Fantasy | 06.12 | $2-3M |
Burning Star | 130k | +2k | 165k | +1k | 23/77 | Drama/Suspese | 07.12 | $5-10M |
Kraven the Hunter | 5k | +2k | 5k | +1k | 69/31 | Comic Book | 14.12 | $4-5M |
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim | 4k | +1k | 9k | +1k | 64/36 | Animation | 14.12 | $4-5M |
Mufasa: The Lion King | 31k | +1k | 26k | +1k | 34/66 | Family/Animation | 20.12 | $15-40M |
The Prosecutor | 28k | +2k | 10k | +1k | 61/39 | Action/Drama | 27.12 | $23-52M |
Honey Money Phony | 129k | +1k | 19k | +170 | 26/74 | Comedy/Romance | 31.12 | $62-74M |
Octopus with Broken Arms | 46k | +6k | 120k | +4k | 47/53 | Drama/Crime | 31.12 |
January:
January for now remains baren. It will be an incredibly backloaded month with Spring Festival starting on the 29th. So far 3 movies have been officialy confirmed for it. Creation Of The Gods P2. A sequel to a very well received movie from last year that made $360M. With the prime date and coming off good reception i have little doubt P2 will increase from the 1st movie.
The Next Boonie Bears movie. China's prime animation franchise which has been a Spring Festival mainstay for a decade now with next year being the 11th consecutive year a Boonie Bears movie releases for Spring Festival. The franchise has seen a steady increase in box office with last years movie hitting a franchise peak $280M+
And as of this week The Legend of the Condor Heroes. A longtime anticipated Marshal arts movie.
The remainer of the slate is rumored to be another 2 strong candidates being a new Detective Chinatown movie called Detective Chinatown 1900 which has wraped filming this year. The Sequel or better said Prequel will try to wash away the incredibly bad reception of DC3. A movie which opened to a record breaking $399M across 3 days beating out End Game's US opening. But only grossed $680M+.
And Operation Leviathant. A followup to 2018's massive success Operation Red Sea which grossed $579M.
There's a small outside chance that Nezha 2 could also release. The follow up to Nezha from 2019 which to this day remains the biggest animation of all time in a single market with $730M+. Although this is more of a longshot and this movie will likely target the summer instead.
Movie | Maoyan WTS | Daily Increase | Taopiaopiao WTS | Daily Increase | M/W % | Genre | Release Date | 3rd party media projections |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Legend of the Condor Heroes | 217k | +2k | 465k | +5k | 17/84 | Martial Arts | 29.01 | |
Creation Of The Gods Part 2 | 134k | +2k | 621k | +8k | 29/71 | War/Fantasy | 29.01 | |
Boonie Bears:Future Reborn | 63k | +2k | 33k | +1k | 29/71 | Animation/Comedy | 29.01 |
Okay, before we begin, I want to note that I am taking about movies where the main characters are green, not ensembles with green characters cause then this list would be filled with Avengers and Guardians of the Galaxy movies.
What can we take away from this ? I don't know. Thank you for this riveting box office analysis.
Just simply the question, if a movie is very succesful in merch sales but a flop or average in cinemas studios consider it worth it?
I constantly see Birds Of Prey Harley costumes (I specifically mean the ones from that movie) during Carnaval and Halloween in my country for years since the movie came out in 2020.
Obviously its just a stupid example but like how does that impact to a movie, how much money a movie like Birds Of Prey (or the Harley Quinn IP in general) has made over the year even if BOP and TSS did poorly in cinemas
Other example would be The Little Mermaid, Ariel dolls were very succesful and I still see merch
2026 looks to be a special year in terms of box office. It's absolutely stacked with blockbuster movies.
Here are some 2026 movies:
What do you guys think about 2026 and it's box office potential?
(1) Here's your thread to predict this upcoming weekend's domestic box office results and (2) Engage in film/box office/streaming conversations that don't work as a stand alone post for this subreddit. A new thread is created automatically every Monday at 9:00 AM EST.