To outgross K:SI, GxK must gross over $569 million at the world wide box office. It’s currently at $521 million

View Poll

INTERNATIONAL PRESALES

Brazil

• ThatWaluigiDude (Meanwhile, Planet of the Apes have passed the pre-sales from GxK with 15 days to go. Bad comp, true, because GxK really did bad on pre-sales until it was out and had a surge, but it is safe to say Planet of the Apes is off to a breakout in Brazil (April 24). I can say that the pre-sales for Planet of the Apes keep growing and are looking pretty decent for a movie still pretty far off, it is safe to say that movie already have Brazil locked on (April 16).)

Firefox72: China Presales and Maoyan Want to See

• (Howl's Moving Castle: 3rd party media total projection: $27M-$37M (April 30).)

• (Spy X Family: Code White: 3rd party media total projection: $17M-$35M (April 30). Spy X Family continues to have stronger pre-sales for the opening day than Howl's Moving Castle (April 21).)

• (Formed Police Unit: 3rd party media total projection: $57M-$66M. Formed Police Unit hits $5.8M in pre-sales and is looking at a $12M opening day (April 30). )

• (Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In: 3rd party media total projection: $62M-$65M. Targeting $5M+ opening day (April 30).)

• (I love You, to the Moon and Back: 3rd party media total projection: $17M-$22M. Looking to open around $3M (April 30). $25M-$30M (April 25).)

• (The Last Frenzy: The Last Frenty exceeds $2.6M presales and will target $7M opening day (April 30).)

• (Nothing Can't Be Undone by a HotPot: Looking to open around $3M (April 30).)

Germany

• IndustriousAngel (There's one big opener, The Fall Guy, which got good reviews in Austria and seems like a fun summer movie - hopefully a new #1 though presales look not so good. And I don't know about Germany but in Austria, there's the prestart for Planet of the Apes 4 - but presales look lackluster, too (April 30).)

Mexico

• Carlangonz (Too late to properly take data for Garfield but sales for it are looking extremely well. Of course Tue and Wed will inflate the overall number but $170M+ ($10M USD) across the 6-Day is within reach (April 29).)

South Korea

• Flip (Earlier presales were deceptive, it had early screenings which drew in 33k admits, but there is very little demand left (April 25). Fall Guy probably has a good chance at 1m admits, given that presales look fine this far out for a relatively unkown IP film (April 18).)

Previous Posts:

April 18

April 23

April 27

It seems like NATO (National Association of Theatre Owners) has removed their webpage for historical average ticket prices. Does anyone have another source for this data?

(Also, I didn't know what flair to use, but industry news seemed like the most appropriate one since this is an industry source that seems to have disappeared).

So most of the commentary here has been about how a $15M OW domestic is a failure primarily because the movie cost $55M + marketing. Had it cost say $30M it might be considered a modest hit and would be well on the road to recouping.

I haven't been able to find any articles discussing the budget in depth so I thought I would do some research.

We know Zendaya was paid $10M but it's not clear if that's just for acting or acting + producing. But that's about it.

Zendaya, Luca Guadagnino, Josh O'Connor and writer Justin Kritzkes are all repped by CAA.

Here is the Deadline announcement article from February 2022. It seems like it was sold as a package deal and was shopped around to various interested studios. It could could have been a competitive situation with multiple bidders and Amazon/MGM coming out on top by saying to Amy Pascal and Zendaya: we will give you a hefty producing fee and everything you want in your budget - Zendaya - you can hire your longtime assistant to play the umpire and your personal hair and makeup artists as consultants, etc. With Zendaya getting $10M, Luca probably got a nice directing fee, as it looks like he was brought in as a gun for hire.

I watched the movie a 2nd time (I like it a lot and hope it can leg out to something credible like $80M WW) and here are other bits I think added to the budget.

- CGI of the sweat - there are a lot of droplets of sweat throughout the movie that seem too perfect to have been photographed IRL and in the final scene, the guys seem lacquered in water

- There are a few tracking shots with a ball on the edges of the frame that also seem CGI'd in

- The actors have said that at times, they weren't hitting a ball with their racquet and their balls were CGI'd in

- People have mentioned a couple of showy POV shots of the game from racquet/ball's perspective

- Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross probably didn't come cheap, especially when they knew their score would be a crucial element of the movie

- Though marketing expenses are separate, could publicity be part of the movie budget? A world-wide press tour, which involves booking planes, hotels, security, and Zendaya's fashion infrastructure probably added a non-negligible amount to the movie.

- Delaying a movie costs a studio money. From Vulture: The Huge Hidden Cost of Holding a Blockbuster

Regarding No Time to Die:

Worse still, MGM was accruing $1 million a month in interest charges on the money it borrowed to finance No Time to Die — cash the company couldn’t recoup until the movie, which cost at least $250 million to produce, arrived in multiplexes.

Any other expenses I'm missing? The budget was likely just participant fees; sadly a lot of studio movies that are non-action, special effects, still manage to cost surprising amounts - $60M for Ticket to Paradise (2 stars), $45M for No Hard Feelings (1 star).

https://preview.redd.it/kpxzsrdfknxc1.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=d649cc8e40206d94e02376bf0bcefd078837085a

#Daily Box Office (April 30th 2024)

The market hits ¥93M/$12.8M which is up +225% versus yesterday and up +295% versus last week.

Province map of the day:

https://imgsli.com/MjYwMzk1

Spy X Family mostly dominates on its release. Twilight of the Warriors gets a few provinces and Howl's Moving Castle gets one.

In Metropolitan cities:

Spy X Family dominates winning Beijing, Shanghai,Hangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuhan and Suzhou.

City tiers:

Spy X Family wins every tier. Howl's Moving Castle places 2nd in T1 and T3 and 3rd in T2 and T4.

Tier 1: Spy X Family>Twilight of the Warriors>Howl's Moving Castle

Tier 2: Spy X Family>Howl's Moving Castle>Twilight of the Warriors

Tier 3: Spy X Family>Twilight of the Warriors>Howl's Moving Castle

Tier 4: Spy X Family>Howl's Moving Castle>Twilight of the Warriors

Pre-Sales map for tomorrow

Formed Police Until is the leader in pre-sales in most of the country ahead of its release tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/qW164Cx.png

###Spy X Family:

Spy X Family ends up coming shy of projections on its release day. However with the start of the Holidays tomorrow its already projected to increase loking to make around $7M tomorrow.

Projected total through Sunday could reach upwards of $33M+

Audience Figures:

WoM figures: Maoyan: 8.6 , Taopiaopiao: 8.9 , Douban: 6.4

|#|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|WED|THU|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |First Week|4.92M| | | | | | |$4.92M

Scheduled showings update for Spy X Family for the next few days:

###Howls Moving Castle:

Howls Moving Castle also misses projections but is as Spy X Family set to rebound tomorrow to almost $5M.

Projected total through Sunday could reach upwards of $22M+

Audience Figures:

WoM figures: Maoyan: 8.6 , Taopiaopiao: 8.9 , Douban: 6.4

|#|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|WED|THU|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |First Week|2.51M| | | | | | |$2.51M

Scheduled showings update for Howls Moving Castle for the next few days:

###The Boy and the Heron

The Boy and The Heron enjoys its last day with a nice ammount of screenings even increasing from yesterday and staying flat from last week. However the projections for the Holidays are less encouraging.

Passing Suzume looking very unlikely.

https://i.imgur.com/QUc2SXH.png

Audience Figures:

Scores: Maoyan: 8.8 , Taopiaopiao: 9.4 , Douban: 7.7

|#|WED|THU|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |Third Week|$0.81M |$0.74M|$1.17M|$2.90M|$2.09M|$0.59M|$0.52M|$102.80M |Fourth Week|$0.50M |$0.46M|$0.74M|$1.27M|$0.55M|$0.45M|$0.52M|$107.29M |%± LW|-38%|-38%|-37%|-56%|-74%|-24%|-0%|/|

Scheduled showings update for The Boy and the Heron for the next few days:

###Godzilla X Kong:

Godzilla X Kong also has a healty increase today on its last relatively unbothered day. Tomorrow it will play on just $1.3k screenings. Before then starting to slowly recover a bit from the 2nd May onwards.

Passing KoTM still in play but it will have to recover a bit better than expected to reach it.

https://i.imgur.com/TGindF7.png

Audience Figures:

Scores: Maoyan: 9.4 , Taopiaopiao: 9.5 , Douban: 6.8

|#|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|WED|THU|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |Fourth Week|$1.38M |$3.21M|$2.52M|$0.72M|$0.68M|$0.67M|$0.68M|$122.15M |Fifth Week|$1.02M |$1.64M|$0.79M|$0.55M|$0.71M|/|/|$126.86M |%± LW|-26%|-49%|-69%|-23%|+5%|/|/|/|

Scheduled showings update for Godzilla X Kong for the next few days:

#Other stuff:

The next holywood releases currently scheduled are Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes on May 10th and The Fall Guy on May 17th.

Some rumors suggest Garfield could release around Childers Day which.

On The Japanese front Howl's Moving Castle releases on the 30th April alongside SPYxFAMILY CODE: White which will release on the same day.

Doraemon 43 has now been confirmed for May 31st release which was expected as its right on the verge of Children's Day on June 1st.

Haikyu!! The Movie: Decisive Battle at the Garbage Dump will release on the 15th June.

Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Freedom will also release in China sometimes in May and My Next Life as a Villainess: All Routes Lead to Doom! The Movie will also release at some point.

So loads of Japanese content ariving to China in the next few months.

#May(Labour) Day Slate:

With May 1st fast approaching the Holiday release slate has mostly formed. The 5 day holiday will see 10 new movies release. 2 Japanese animations, 2 local animations and 6 live action movies.

While this is one of the bigger Holiday periods of the year its traditionaly not a strong movie going period which means all of the biggest blockbusters mostly avoid it. There's only 3 movies from the Labor Day Holiday periods in the top 100 of all time list by gross with the highest being Us and Them in 71st with a gross of $215M

Most of the movies have started pre-sales in the last few days with a few still left to start . 3 Animations will strike first on Aprill 30th including both of the Japanese ones. And then the rest will follow on the 1st.

Formed Police Unit

Wang Yibo returns to the big screens for the first time this year after a successfull 2023 which saw 3(One and Only, Hidden Blade, Born To Fly) of the movies he starred in cross $100M.

It is a story that follows the Chinese peacekeeping police who go overseas to complete their missions. They are loyal and devoted to putting their lives on the line to protect others, actively responding to the call from corresponding countries to maintain security and stability in the world. This time around, how will they face the new round of challenges coming their way

Total projection: $57M-$66M

Howl's Moving Castle

Following the success of The Boy and The Heron the end of the month sees the release of another Miyazaki movie. This time a classic in Howl's Moving Castle which celebrates 20 years since release this year. It will be aiming to become Miyazaki's 3rd highest grossing movie in China behind The Boy and The Heron and Spirited Away.

It tells the story of Sophie, a young milliner who is turned into an elderly woman by a witch who enters her shop and curses her. She encounters a wizard named Howl and gets caught up in his resistance to fighting for the king

Total projection: $27M-$37M

Spy X Family: Code White

And next to Howl's Moving Castle another Japanese release on the same day will be the new Spy X Family movie.

After receiving an order to be replaced in Operation Strix, Loid decides to help Anya win a cooking competition at Eden Academy, by making the director's favorite meal in order to prevent his replacement. After receiving an order to be replaced in Operation Strix, Loid decides to help Anya win a cooking competition at Eden Academy by making the principal's favorite meal in order to prevent his replacement. The Forgers decide to travel to the meal's origin region, where they set off a chain of actions which could potentially put the world's peace at risk.

Total projection: $17M-$35M

Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In

Soi Cheang the director of the Monkey King trilogy returns with a new movie. Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In is a Hong Kong martial arts movie thats finnaly coming out after being in on and off development for over 20 years going through multiple title, director and cast changes.

It follows a troubled youth Chan, who accidentally enters the Walled City, discovers the order amidst its chaos, and learns important life lessons along the way. He becomes close friends with Shin, Twelfth Master and AV. Under the leadership of Tornado, they resist against the invasion of villain Mr. Big in a series of fierce battles. Together, they vow to protect the city, which they have come to regard as their safe haven.

3rd party media total projection: $62M-$65M

I love You, to the Moon and Back

I love You, to the Moon and Back is the romance option of the holiday period.

It tells the story of a newlywed couple Lin Xiushan (played by Zhang Zifeng) and Wang Rui (played by Hu Xianxu). They live in two places due to work, making it difficult to meet each other. A surprise vacation comes, and they embark on a two-way journey of pure love. The train travels in the darkness, and the two of them look forward to the dawn with joy. Along the way, they met all kinds of passengers, witnessed various aspects of life, and understood the true meaning of love.

Total projection: $17M-$22M

Opening Day Pre-sales

With the Japanese movies now out today the rest of the slate follows tomorrow.

Formed Police Untils hits $5.8M in pre-sales and is looking at a $12M opening day. The Last Frenty exceeds $2.6M and will target $7M with Twilight of the Warriors targeting $5M+

I love You, to the Moon and Back and Nothing Can't Be Undone by a HotPot both looking to open around $3M

#Release Schedule:

A table including upcoming movies in the next month alongside trailers linked in the name of the movie, Want To See data from both Maoyan and Taopiaopiao alongside the Gender split and genre.

Remember Want To See is not pre-sales. Its just an anticipation metric. A checkbox of sorts saying your interested in an upcoming movie.

Not all movies are included since a lot are just too small to be worth covering.

• With tomorrow's massive rollout for the holidays a lot of the schedule clears. I'l fill it in with movies coming later in May and early June tomorrow.

| Movie |Maoyan WTS|Daily Increase| Taopiaopiao WTS|Daily Increase|M/W %|Genre|Release Date :----------- |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes |185k |+3k |148k |+3k|52/48|Animation/Sci-Fi|10.05 The Fall Guy |9.7k |+225 |11k |+206|52/48|Action|17.05

The First Omen even had a IP in its favor and the last OMEN movie had a big opening.

Both movies got good reviews, they were well promoted, and in Immaculate's case, a rising star in Sydney Sweeney.

Religious Horror movies often do well, The Nun 2 did over 200 million worldwide.

What happened? How do you explain these numbers?

Sonic The Hedgehog 3, and Mufasa: The Lion King are both coming out the same day on December 20, 2024. However, people are being so unrealistic with their predictions. People are believing that Mufasa will destroy Sonic 3 or make more, others have been saying that Sonic 3 will get delayed just because the trailer for Mufasa trailer released first. Well these people are wrong, Sonic 3 is going to do great, even when Mufasa comes out, and here’s why:

1. Sonic 3 is gaining a lot of hype and anticipation building towards release. They are other factors that are drawing more interest towards this movie outside of Sonic fans, Shadow is going to be played by Keanu Reeves (best known for playing John Wick), Jim Carey reprises his role as Eggman, Crush 40 is participating in the movie’s soundtrack, the plot of Shadow’s backstory will draw lots of attention/interest. On the other hand with Mufasa, I don’t see anyone who cares for it, and the trailer received worse negative reactions than the 2019 remake of The Lion King.
2. The current state of Disney. I get it everyone, The Lion King is a more popular brand than Sonic The Hedgehog, but people are forgetting about what’s been happening with Disney lately. A lot of their IP films have been persistently underperforming, even the live-action Little Mermaid remake from last year. I know it did decent making $500M, but it was expected to do better, and this proves that people are getting tired of this trend of making live action reimagining’s of their classic animated films. This trend will only continue to decline.
3. Nostalgic appeal to Classic Disney movies won’t work the second time around.
4. The Sonic 3 trailer was already released first, but not to the public yet. It was exclusively released at CinemaCon, and the crowds over there went crazy. The people who saw that trailer at CinemaCon have already been talking about it on social media. I think trailer will release publicly in May, probably when IF comes out, and the hype is probably going to burst even more. Paramount is being very slick and serious with the marketing for Sonic 3.

With these factors, I don’t believe that Mufasa will scare Sonic 3 away, neither will it defeat the latter. Once marketing for Sonic 3 gets into full swing and the hype increases, Mufasa should be the one to get delayed. Not Sonic 3.