/r/boxoffice
A place to talk about the box office and the movie business, both domestically and internationally.
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Box Office Resources
Wiki pages
Common box office questions FAQ
Historical Box Office Data - 1950-1958
AMAs
Essentials
Box Office Pro - best known for their long-range forecasts of domestic openings.
Box Office Report - a source for box office updates, with great pages comparing a movie's opening weekend numbers to its trailer views and preview night results.
Box Office Theory - popular box office forum.
World of KJ - another popular box office forum.
The Trades
Deadline - has the most comprehensive box office analysis of all the trades.
International Box Office
entgroup.cn - reports on the Chinese box office regularly.
Korean Film Council - updates on Korean box office numbers.
InsideKino - mostly german box office though it has admissions and revenue data on a variety of other, mostly European, markets.
[Boxoffice Turkiye](boxofficeturkiye.com) - Turkish Box Office
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THE LINE | Official Teaser Trailer | Utopia | In Theatres September 27th
LOGLINE:
Tom, a passionate 'brother' of his fraternity, is charmed by the promises of high social status and alumni connections that open doors. But when a classmate outside of his social circle enters his life, his devotion begins to falter.
20:17 UTC
Weekend Actuals for August 23-25 – 'Deadpool & Wolverine' Returns to the Top Spot, 'Alien: Romulus' Falls, 'The Crow' Dies
In an incredibly weak weekend, Deadpool & Wolverine seized the opportunity to return to the top spot on its fifth weekend. There were three newcomers and there were mixed results; Blink Twice became another Channing Tatum blunder, The Forge performed well, while The Crow unsurprisingly became a feast for crows.
The Top 10 earned a combined $82.5 million this weekend. That's up 5.8% from last year, when Gran Turismo cheated its way to #1.
Deadpool & Wolverine got back to the top spot, dropping just 39% and adding $18.3 million this weekend. With $577.2 million in the bank already, the film is going to close with over $620 million, which is just extraordinary.
Last week's champ Alien: Romulus was more front-loaded than anticipated. The film fell a steep 61% and added $16.3 million. That drop is better than Covenant (70.6%) but is worse than Prometheus (59.4%). That's kinda surprising considering the film's good response so far, but it looks like the franchise has a ceilling. Through ten days, it has amassed $72.8 million, and it has no chance of topping Prometheus ($126.4 million). It will close with over $100 million, but it won't be by much.
Sony's It Ends with Us added $11.6 million this weekend. That marks another rough 51% drop, which suggests the film won't be as leggy as other book adaptations like Where the Crawdads Sing. But the film has made $120.6 million so far, so it's not like it really matters anyway. It should hit around $150 million, but its first days suggested $200 million was possible.
In fourth place, Amazon MGM's Blink Twice debuted with $7.3 million in 3,067 theaters. That's not far off from Tatum's previous box office blunder, Fly Me to the Moon, which failed to take off with just $9.4 million just one month ago.
The film cost just $20 million, so it's not a bad debut. But it's not a great one either. Yet it's tough to ask for higher numbers, given that the trailers have been very vague over the film's content, and outside Tatum, the rest of the cast are not box office draws. And even Tatum, as mentioned, has had his share of bombs in the past. Zoë Kravitz, on her directorial debut, is also not a draw either. So it's a film that, at the end of the day, it's doing the best it possibly can.
According to Amazon MGM, 56% of the audience was female and 62% was in the 18-34 demographic. While critics liked the film, the audience didn't feel the same; they gave it a very weak "B–" on CinemaScore. It is reported that audience members felt uncomfortable with the film's surprisingly bleak tone, which might explain it. We'll see how it goes, but so far, we don't have signs of a hit here.
Sony/Affirm's The Forge debuted with $6.6 million in 1,818 theaters. The film cost just $5 million, so it will comfortably be in the green. A massive 80% of the audience was 35 and over. They gave it a strong "A+" on CinemaScore. It should hold well.
Twisters dropped 39% and added $6.1 million. That takes its domestic total to $248.5 million, passing the original Twister's unadjusted gross. If only the foreign performance matched this performance.
In seventh place, Fathom Events' Coraline dipped 49% and added $5 million this weekend. That takes its lifetime total to $106.9 million. In some big news, it officially passed Chicken Run to become the highest grossing stop-motion animated film domestically.
It's not until the eighth spot where we find Lionsgate's The Crow, which flopped with just $4.6 million in 2,752 theaters. For reference, the original Crow debuted with $11.7 million back in 1994, and that's just unadjusted. In fact, the reboot's opening weekend is less than the original's third weekend.
This was one of the easiest flops to predict this summer. There's so many reasons why the film was left to the crows, but there's a big one here: it simply didn't look good. In fact, every single image and trailer of the film looked awful. When you compare it to the original film, it's even worse. The lead character's make-up and design looked incredibly reminiscent of Jared Leto's Joker, which is the worst compliment you can give.
The original Crow attained a cult following, particularly as the film was Brandon Lee's final film due to his tragic death during filming. In the eyes of the public, Brandon Lee is The Crow, making it very difficult for any other actor to take the mantle. Which is why the reboot was stuck in development hell for decades and saw the involvement and subsequent exit of stars like Mark Wahlberg, Bradley Cooper, Channing Tatum, Ryan Gosling, James McAvoy, Tom Hiddleston, Alexander Skarsgård, Luke Evans, Norman Reedus, Jack Huston, Nicholas Hoult, Jack O'Connell, and Jason Momoa.
Now, the public is not aware of production problems, they simply want to watch a film. But the amount of delays suggest there's problems with finding the right script. It didn't fully gain traction till a few years ago, when Bill Skarsgård finally signed. And as proven with Boy Kills World, he is not a big name at the box office. And when you have Rupert Sanders as director, you're set for failure in the reception; it's currently sitting at a poor 19% on Rotten Tomatoes. Combine it with a reboot that no one was really interested, and you've got a flop.
According to Lionsgate, 58% of the audience was male and 58% was in the 18-34 demographic. The audience gave it a poor "B–" on CinemaScore, suggesting very lukewarm word of mouth. With putrid reception, the film is destined to fall quickly. There's a strong chance the film's lifetime gross will be less than the original's opening weekend. Lionsgate won't be hugely affected; they paid $10 million for the film and only spent $15 million on marketing. But they will still lose money on the film.
Universal/Illumination's Despicable Me 4 eased just 32%, grossing $4.2 million. Its domestic total stands at $348.1 million.
Rounding up the Top Ten was Disney/Pixar's Inside Out 2, which dropped 41% and adding $2 million. Its domestic total is now $646.2 million, and it should see a great hold this incoming weekend.
#OVERSEAS
Alien: Romulus once again led the box office with $41.6 million overseas, taking its worldwide total to $225.6 million. The big story is China, where it became the second-biggest Hollywood movie in the country this year, behind Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. In fact, it's already making more money there than in the United States. The best markets are China ($73.3M), UK ($10.7M), Korea ($9.7M), France ($7M) and Mexico ($5.6M).
It Ends with Us added $22.3 million overseas, taking the worldwide total to $242.4 million. Its best markets are the UK ($20.5M), Australia ($11.8M), Mexico ($10.8M), Germany ($9.1M) and Brazil ($8.1M).
Deadpool & Wolverine added $20.2 million, and its worldwide total is now $1.211 billion. The best markets are the UK ($66.6M), China ($58.7M), Mexico ($42.4M), Australia ($38.7M) and Germany ($33.1M).
Despicable Me 4 added $18.6 million, and its worldwide total stands at $886 million. The best markets are China ($54.9M), UK ($53.8M), Mexico ($44.5M), Germany ($35.9M) and France ($30.7M).
Inside Out 2 added $9.1 million. The big news, is that it became the first animated film to cross $1 billion at the overseas box office, with its worldwide total now at $1.648 billion. It's just a few millions away from passing 2019's The Lion King to become the biggest animated film ever. The best markets are Mexico ($102.2M), Brazil ($80M), UK ($72.7M), France ($62.6M) and Korea ($60.8M).
Blink Twice debuted in 73 markets, although it was also soft with just $6.7 million overseas. That takes its worldwide debut to $13.9 million.
You may notice The Crow's insanely low worldwide numbers. So far we don't have actual numbers. They'll be posted as soon as possible.
#FILMS THAT ENDED THEIR RUN THIS WEEK
| Movie | Release Date | Studio | Domestic Opening | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total | Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | May/10 | 20th Century Studios | $58,400,788 | $171,130,165 | $397,378,150 | $160M |
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes has closed with almost $400 million worldwide. It's hard to call this a hit, given that it didn't cover its marketing expenses. But considering how it had to build interest for new characters and a new storyline, perhaps it's solid enough for Disney and 20th Century Studios to go forward with their trilogy.
#THIS WEEKEND
It's Labor Day, which is notoriously a very slow moviegoing weekend. And without National Cinema Day, it's likely audiences opt to just save their money till Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.
There's only one film expected to hit wide release, and that's Sony/Blumhouse's Afraid, which follows a smart home AI increasingly interjecting itself into a family's life. Buzz is not quite strong with this film, and while it should be profitable due to Blumhouse's low budget, it'd be a surprise if it truly broke out.
#ANNOUNCEMENT
This week, I'm leaving for a short vacations, so I won't be able to do a post next week. But don't worry, u/BunyipPouch will cover for me for Labor Day. Then I'll be back to talk about Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.
20:17 UTC
SK Monday update: Alien Romulus is at 10 million dollars
Alien Romulus: That's a 31% drop from last Monday and it will break 1.3 million admits tomorrow.
Pilot: A 43% drop from last Monday.
Twisters: A very nice 20% drop as the movie is having a very Challengers type of run. Small opening with solid legs.
D&W: 56% drop from last Monday.
IO2: A 70% drop from last Monday.
DM4: A 79% drop from last Monday.
http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/eng/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY
18:31 UTC
In China Alien: Romulus grossed $3.01M(-64%)/$76.31M on Monday. Projected a $2.6-2.7M Tuesday. UNTOUCHABLE in 2nd grossed $1.60M/$11.90M followed by Go for Broke in 3rd with $1.44M(-53%)/$34.66M. It Ends with Us hits just $22k in pre-sales for Friday. Not looking to do well.
#Daily Box Office (August 26th 2024)
The market hits ¥82.6M/$11.6M which is down -50% from yesterday and down -39% versus last week.
Detective Conan: The Million-dollar Pentagram continues to make inroads towards Blue Sapphire. It could surpass it at the same time as early as tomorrow.
https://i.imgur.com/AeH5asS.png
Province map of the day:
UNTOUCHABLE claws back some ground in the NE.
In Metropolitan cities:
Alien: Romulus wins Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou
City tiers:
Unchanged from yesterdy.
Tier 1: Alien: Romulus>Go For Broke>UNTOUCHABLE
Tier 2: Alien: Romulus>UNTOUCHABLE>Go For Broke
Tier 3: Alien: Romulus>UNTOUCHABLE>Go For Broke
Tier 4: Alien: Romulus>UNTOUCHABLE>The Hedgehog
| # | Movie | Gross | %YD | %LW | Screenings | Admisions(Today) | Total Gross | Projected Total Gross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alien: Romulus | $3.01M | -52% | -63% | 87769 | 0.54M | $76.31M | $113M-$115M |
| 2 | UNTOUCHABLE | $1.60M | -47% | 55824 | 0.28M | $11.90M | $25M-$30M | |
| 3 | Go For Broke | $1.44M | -45% | -53% | 39874 | 0.25M | $34.66M | $56M-$60M |
| 4 | The Hedgehog | $1.21M | -53% | 56726 | 0.21M | $11.75M | $22M-$24M | |
| 5 | Successor | $0.94M | -44% | -46% | 25624 | 0.16M | $443.98M | $475M-$483M |
| 6 | Detective Conan 2024 | $0.90M | -51% | -62% | 29676 | 0.17M | $29.86M | $40M-$41M |
| 7 | How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies | $0.83M | -37% | 28975 | 0.16M | $5.27M | $16M-$18M | |
| 8 | White Snake: Afloat | $0.72M | -50% | -48% | 21925 | 0.13M | $50.90M | $70M-$81M |
| 9 | Upstream | $0.23M | -50% | -76% | 9185 | 0.04M | $46.76M | $52M-$54M |
| 10 | Despicable Me 4 | $0.18M | -60% | -24% | 7054 | 0.03M | $54.99M | $57M-$58M |
| *YD=Yesterday, LW=Last Week, |
Pre-Sales map for tomorrow
The Hedgehog keeps leading pre-sales in a few provinces.
https://i.imgur.com/SMWL3co.png
###Alien: Romulus
Alien grossed a very solid $3M on its 2nd Monday.
It will surpass both GOTG3 and Transformers: Rise Of The Beast by the end of the week.
https://i.imgur.com/kOA1iJ2.png
Audience Figures:
WoM figures: Maoyan: 9.0 , Taopiaopiao: 9.1 , Douban: 7.5(-0.1)
Gender Split(M-W): 61-39
Age Split: Under 20: 3.0%, 20-24: 24.0%, 25-29: 28.5%, 30-34: 18.8%, 35-39: 13.0%, Over 40: 12.6%
City Tiers: T1: 24.0%, T2: 52.2%, T3: 13.0%, T4: 10.8%
Most Popular Province: Guangdong: 13.8%
Most Popular City: Shanghai: 10.6%
Screen Distribution Split: Regular: 83.4%, IMAX: 13.3%, Rest: 3.3%
Language split: English Version: 99.0%, Mandarin: 1.0%
|#|FRI|SAT|SUN|MON|TUE|WED|THU|Total| |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:| |First Week|$6.00M |$8.94M|$11.17M|$8.16M|$7.48M|$6.37M|$5.51M|$53.63M |Second Week|$5.65M |$7.71M|$6.31M|$3.01M|/|/|/|$76.31M |%± LW|-6%|-14%|-43%|-63%|/|/|/|/|
Scheduled showings update for Alien: Romulus for the next few days:
| Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 88349 | $316k | $2.99M-$3.15M |
| Tuesday | 87465 | $282k | $2.64M-$2.72M |
| Wednesday | 58467 | $41k | $2.41M-$2.45M |
--
#Other stuff:
The next Holywood releases currently scheduled is It Ends with Us on the 30th August. The Wild Robot on September 20th. Transformers One has been confirmed for a release but doesnt have a date yet.
It Ends with Us
Incredibly mediocre pre-sales for It Ends with Us. This won't do well.
|Days till release |It Ends with US| Twisters |The Fall Guy |Argylle |Dial of Destiny|Bad Boys Ride Or Die
:----------- |:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|
7|$5k/1185 |$2.5k/6884 |$2k/3809 |$535/434 |$340/793 |$25k/7732|
6|$9k/1818 |$4.8k/8240 |$3k/4829 |$908/539 |$1k/1735 |$42k/8966|
5|$14k/2151|$7.2k/8681 |$4k/5854 |$2k/821 |$4k/3466 |$59k/10299|
4|$18k/2504|$10k/9068 |$6k/6453 |$3k/2089 |$10k/6546 |$81k/13665|
3|$22k/3394|$20k/10220 |$10k/8157 |$8k/3325 |$18k/9461 |$105k/17470|
2| |$29k/14485 |$17k/12700|$19k/6079 |$31k/15068 |$137k/24497|
1| |$64k/24505 |$31k/23737|$38k/11682 |$62k/21668 |$165k/35340|
0| |$121k/32547|$62k/31166|$104k/15927|$170k/25748|$278k/42361|
Opening Day| |$0.57M |$0.25M |$0.49M |$0.80M |$1.68M|
#Release Schedule:
A table including upcoming movies in the next month alongside trailers linked in the name of the movie, Want To See data from both Maoyan and Taopiaopiao alongside the Gender split and genre.
Remember Want To See is not pre-sales. Its just an anticipation metric. A checkbox of sorts saying your interested in an upcoming movie.
Not all movies are included since a lot are just too small to be worth covering.
August:
| Movie | Maoyan WTS | Daily Increase | Taopiaopiao WTS | Daily Increase | M/W % | Genre | Release Date | 3rd party media projections |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Tunnel to Summer, the Exit of Goodbyes | 79k | +3k | 20k | +1k | 58/42 | Drama/Animation | 30.08 | |
| My Next Life as a Villainess All Routes Lead to Doom! | 35k | +1k | 17k | +260 | 35/65 | Animation | 30.08 | |
| It End with Us | 16k | +1k | 9k | +1k | 22/78 | Drama/Romance | 30.08 | $2-3M |
| The God of Cookery | 27k | +1k | 21k | +1k | 72/28 | Comedy/Action | 31.08 |
September:
| Movie | Maoyan WTS | Daily Increase | Taopiaopiao WTS | Daily Increase | M/W % | Genre | Release Date | 3rd party media projections |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Wandering Earth II Re-Release | 1412k | +1k | 1331k | +1k | 46/54 | Sci-Fi | 15.09 | |
| Enjoy Yourself | 29k | +1k | 23k | +2k | 18/82 | Drama | 15.09 | |
| Like A Rolling Stone | 31k | +2k | 7k | +1k | 29/71 | Drama/Family | 15.09 | |
| Keep Rolling | 18k | +1k | 9k | +1k | 32/68 | Comedy/Disaster | 15.09 | |
| The Wild Robot | 8k | +657 | 8k | +547 | 33/67 | Science Fiction/Animation | 20.09 |
17:00 UTC
Hi /r/boxoffice! We are Dave and John Chernin, writers/directors of Netflix’s high school comedy INCOMING, which is now streaming! You may know our work on IT’S ALWAYS SUNNY IN PHILADELPHIA (writers of 30 episodes) and THE MICK (creators/writers). Come ask us anything in /r/movies today Monday 8/26
14:34 UTC
Weekend Prediction Thread & Casual Box Office/Film/Streaming Discussion
(1) Here's your thread to predict this upcoming weekend's domestic box office results and (2) Engage in film/box office/streaming conversations that don't work as a stand alone post for this subreddit. A new thread is created automatically every Monday at 9:00 AM EST.
13:00 UTC
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story | Official Trailer
12:56 UTC
Do you think Alien: Romulus' success in China will results in changes on the regulations and censorship of violence in Chinese productions and imports?
12:37 UTC
UK Box Office Weekend
12:12 UTC
Are Paramount’s release timing issues over?
Some of Paramount’s biggest underperformances last year can be attributed to some poor timing. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves released too close to John Wick 4 to gain any real traction, while Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning got swallowed up by the Barbenheimer juggernaut. Do we think that this issue is gonna crop up again with Sonic 3 releasing the same day as Mufasa? Or Gladiator II releasing so close to Wicked and Moana 2?
11:16 UTC
🇪🇸 Spain Weekend Box Office August 23-25
08:35 UTC
Calcuating Borderlands theatrical losses so far (and how foreign pre sales saved Lionsgate)
With Borderlands bombing, now would be a good time to calculate the theatrical losses. As Lionsgate's financing model is different, instead of international gross we will use the foreign pre sales (which is 60% of the budget) And because of that, I will make two versions, one with Lionsgate's model and one with a regular studio model.
Domestic gross will still be 50% of the gross, and as the film flopped, we will have residuals at 15% of the profit. As always, this is only theatrical revenue and ancillaries will make the loss seem smaller.
THE LIONSGATE MODEL
PROFIT
- DOMESTIC PROFIT (50% OF GROSS): $7,600,000
- FOREIGN PRE SALES (60% OF BUDGET): $72,000,000
- TOTAL THEATRICAL PROFITS: $79,600,000
COSTS
- RESIDUALS (15% OF GROSS): $1,140,000
- BUDGET: $120,000,000
- MARKETING: $30,000,000
- OVERHEAD (10% OF BUDGET/MARKETING): $15,000,000
- TOTAL COSTS: $166,140,000
This gives the film a loss of only $86,740,000, which is quite low and ancillaries will lower that number (though still a loss). Now lets see how much the film would lose if they used the typical 50/40/25 model.
REGULAR STUDIO MODEL
PROFIT
- DOMESTIC PROFIT (50% OF GROSS): $7,600,000
- INTERNATIONAL PROFIT (40% OF GROSS): $3,640,000
- CHINA PROFIT (25% OF GROSS): N/A
- TOTAL THEATRICAL PROFITS: $11,240,000
COSTS
- RESIDUALS (15% OF GROSS): $1,686,000
- BUDGET: $120,000,000
- MARKETING: $80,000,000*
- OVERHEAD (10% OF BUDGET/MARKETING): $20,000,000
- TOTAL COSTS: $221,686,000
In this scenario, Lionsgate would lose $210,446,000 theatrically, a very big loss, although ancillaries would reduce that loss.
This proves that the foreign pre sale method saved Lionsgate from losing much money, and most of the losses will be passed on to the foreign distributors. Lionsgate won't lose much on The Crow and Megalopolis, with a $10M Budget/$15M Marketing/$2.5M Overhead giving a $27.5M total cost for The Crow, and a $2M Marketing Overhead cost for Megalopolis.
*The $30m marketing cost was likely only for domestic, the foreign distributors would've paid the foreign marketing, not Lionsgate
07:07 UTC
🇮🇹 Italian weekend box office August 22-25: Despicable Me at €6,309,594. Opening Weekend comparison with the previous titles in the saga: Minions 2 €4,427,092 and Despicable Me 3 €5,443,862. DM4 is off to a good start.
06:23 UTC
🇹🇭 Thailand Weekend Box Office August 22-25
06:14 UTC
Heat 2 might be a repeat of Blade Runner 2049, Doctor Sleep and Furiosa situation: Studios confusing online fandom for general audience interest.
Blade Runner(1982), The Shining(1980) and Mad Max: Fury Road(2015) are very popular among cinephiles, #FilmTwitter and Letterboxd bros. But they aren't popular in the real world. That's why the sequel/prequel to all those films bombed with Blade Runner 2049(2017), Doctor Sleep(2019) and Furiosa(2024) even with great critical and audience reception. It's just a case where studios confused online fandom for general audience interest.
Heat(1995) is kinda similar where it is very influential and regarded as a classic but will the average moviegoer show up "another Heat movie directed by Michael Mann"? If Heat 2 has a $100M+ budget then it will be in big trouble.
05:33 UTC