Ever wished you could predict the crypto market? What if a game could not only help you improve that skill but also pay you for it? Proposing CryptoDraw, a system that could turn crypto prediction into a global, interactive, and potentially profitable game.

The Problem: Traditional technical analysis (TA) and even complex machine learning models try to predict future prices based on historical price data. At their core, they're trying to guess how traders will react emotionally to chart patterns. What if we could cut out the middleman and tap directly into those trader minds?

The CryptoDraw Solution: CryptoDraw is a simple yet powerful idea for a web game where you're presented with a recent cryptocurrency price chart. Your task? Draw the continuation of that price line, predicting where it will go next.

Here's how it would work:

Draw the Future: Use your intuition, experience, or even just a lucky guess to draw your predicted price movement on the chart.

Earn $DRAWX: You'll earn $DRAWX tokens based on the accuracy of your drawn line and your in-game reputation. The more accurate you are, and the better your reputation, the more you earn.

Reputation Matters: A built-in reputation system rewards consistent accuracy and filters out random guesses, ensuring that the best predictors have the most influence.

From Predictions to Profit: Here's where it gets interesting. We'll use the aggregated predictions from all players (think "average line" plus some machine learning magic) to inform a real-world trading strategy.

Profit Sharing: If the trading strategy is profitable over the long term, a portion of those profits will be distributed back to $DRAWX holders, proportionally to their balance. Essentially, your accurate predictions you make for free could earn you a share of real crypto profits!

Why this might actually work:

Wisdom of the Crowds: By combining the insights of hundreds or even thousands of players, I believe CryptoDraw can tap into the collective intelligence of the crypto community, potentially outperforming traditional prediction methods.

Direct Simulation of Trader Psychology: Instead of trying to model trader behavior indirectly, we're simulating it directly through gameplay.

Incentivized Accuracy: The potential to earn real profits incentivizes players to make their best possible predictions.

What do you think?

I believe CryptoDraw has the potential to revolutionize crypto prediction by gamifying it and directly involving the community. Would you play CryptoDraw and do you find drawing price line continuations engaging? What features would you like to see, for example a practice mode? Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

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Long-time lurker here. I recently inherited €70,000 and want to invest it all into Bitcoin over the next year or two. I’ve been DCAing small amounts for a while but this is a larger sum.

For context: I sold my car and moved to a walkable city last year, so this money is my “future fund.” I’m risk-aware but don’t want to gamble. My plan is to spread buys over 12-24 months, but I’m second-guessing everything:

What exchanges are the go-to for Europeans? I keep hearing horror stories about withdrawals getting frozen.

Also, everyone says “just DCA and hold,” but are there actually better methods for larger sums? I’ve never managed this much money before. Especially worried about entering at this point in the market.

No ego here, roast my plan if needed. Just don’t want to regret this in 5 years. Thanks for the wisdom.

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Alright I'm looking for some advice here on risk management/strategy. I figured this sub is best to ask. I hold some bitcoin and have for like 10 years. Never sold a thing, had a conviction then, and still have it now. I expect price will still at least double this year.

Problem is right now I need some money, and let's say I need 100k for simplicity. I could sell 1btc, take the profit quick and simple, but then potentially lose out on ~100k in future gains.

Or, I could put 2btc up for collateral, pay 12k interest, and get 100k loan. If price doubles, I would be saving 88k in this scenario. But obviously there is the counterparty risk of losing 2btc. There's also some risk of liquidation if things go south.

I do plan to sell/trade/diversify my stack this year anyhow. So the cap gains isn't a huge consideration.

What would you do? Take the easy/simple profit and move on with life, or let it ride and find/manage a btc backed loan, and try to maximize gains at all costs? I'm not risk averse, it's how I got here in the first place. But I want to make the smartest decision.

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I'm interested in doing some mild trading with leverage and I am wondering what you all find is the best option for US customers. I've opened accounts at Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken and done some exploring and research.

I gave coinbase a try but to be honest I don't fully understand the futures contracts. It's not completely intuitive to me what is going on, and what the margin requirements/liquidation levels are. I've since ready many bad reports of contracts settling incorrectly? But maybe that were people who didn't understand how they work? or things have improved since then?

Gemini doesn't seem to offer any leveraged trading in the US

Kraken seems like a pretty straightforward margin trading but it's looking like it says you need 10 million USD to qualify? But it's up to you to say whether you qualify? Is that just a formality?

Any other options out there?

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Hello, I’ve been buying small amounts of BTC weekly to hold for years now. After the recent run I decided to realise some small profits. Most of it I’m putting into my ISA and the other half I want to try trading BTC.

I appreciate this is basically gambling and I will probably loose everything, but it’s not much and I want to FAAFO to learn more about the market in general and have some fun.

What is the most honest and reliable place to learn this?

Something like a YouTube series or consultant who can teach online.

Thanks

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Ross Ulbricht has been pardoned and is now a free man. I can't help but wonder how this will impact the price of Bitcoin. I've seen so many other posts in different subs talking about how he could possibly be the richest man in the world, with billions stored away in Bitcoin. I would expect to see a massive sell off so that he can buy some nice accommodations and other things for himself. Which would probably result in a massive price drop, right? What do you guys think?

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Imagine SBF but never having given CZ enough coins to rekt him. What would be the state today if CZ hadn't dumped on him?

I imagine FTX would still be running, Bitcoin would be at SBF's beck and call, loans would be impossible to margin call.

All Trump would have to do is hold the 80% and use some of the loan money to put in bids to prop up the price. Someone out there would be greedy enough to offer loans against it as collateral.

SBF simply took too much meth and couldn't keep track of things.

They gave CZ a bunch of coins to entice him to buy them out when still early, then forgot all about it. The books got messy because they never wanted to record any of the fraud, so they couldn't figure out how much reserve was needed to protect against him selling (or simply didn't realise it was a risk).

CZ got a look at the books and is much smarter, so he knew exactly how much FTT he needed to sell and how much Bitcoin he needed to buy in order to rekt them.

How?

Well... CZ was using BNB in the exact same way, so he knew the game. In the weeks before BNB pumped in order to get the ammo required. Then it all unwound.

Some time later, SBF realised he was rekt. Not long after that, he was in prison.

The first turd is where CZ was positioned.
The 2nd turd is when SBF realised he was rekt.
The 3rd turd is when SBF went to prison.

https://i.imgur.com/q1BnXI6.png

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The Trump administration have repeatedly stated they want to boost exports, reduce imports, and return manufacturing to the USA. This will be very hard to do even with tariffs etc because of the USD role as the global reserve currency. (See the Triffin Dilemma for why). It will be almost impossible for the USA to reduce current account deficits and trade deficits while maintaining the USD as global reserve currency as they must provide the world with sufficient dollars to trade or else or all falls apart anyway.

A reversion to the gold standard or alternatively a Bitcoin Strategic reserve/Bitcoin standard could be an easy path for Trump to achieve a weaker USD and could be done unilaterally. Even without legislation, if Trump declared that Bitcoin held by govt wouldn't be sold and talked about it a lot, the impact would be significant.

This is a tale of a dry run for an emergency-driven backup plan for a btc wallet. When it was happening, however, I did not know it was only going to be a dry run, and so it felt more like a descent into hell. But note: As I mentioned in my original post, everything turned out OK, the fire guys did astounding work, and there was ultimately no danger to us or our home. I’m recounting the tale only so that some of you might benefit from our experience. 

Let me give you the punchline first: Your backup plan cannot be independent of a general life plan. You need to consider some pretty far out edge cases. I’m sure many of you have done that, but it is worth taking 10 minutes to double check your plan against my story to test the robustness of your plan. If you don’t want to read a wall of text, skip to the bullet summary at the bottom. 

My story of descent into hell starts with my wife and I out for a small nearby hike. At the very end of the hike, I thought I smelled smoke but assumed it was because of the big LA fires just a few miles south of us (these are the ones you have seen on the news.) It turns out that the smoke was probably the beginning of the new Kenneth fire. Shortly after we got home, there was a large plume of smoke and then it was clear this was a new fire. The winds were high and most of the fire fighters were working on the big LA fires so it was hard to know how it would evolve. Within about 10 minutes, we got an “evacuation warning” on our cell phones.  In the language of public emergency messages “evacuation warning” means pack up and get ready to leave, while “evacuation order” means get out and go now.

 As it turns out, we had a written list of items to pull together for evacuations, so I pulled that out and started working through the list as calmly as I could manage. When I got to the wallet thumb drive, I went to where it was supposed to be and my heart sank: It was not there. Around this time, the sheriff drives by with a bullhorn and I thought he was telling us to evac now. At this point, I am relieved that I have a backup drive with a relative far away, because my wife has a number of medical issues and reduced mobility, so I just don’t have time to figure out why my thumb drive is not where it is supposed to be.  I gather up a few more things and head out to the car and make sure the wife is ready, because for all I know this is the last time we see our house before it joins the many smoldering ruins that we’ve seen on the news. 

Now it turns out (thank all the gods) that this was as far into hell as we descended. The actual end of the story went like this: I went outside, and my neighbors were talking to a firefighter. He told us that as long as the winds did not shift, we would likely not have to evacuate, which meant that I had misunderstood what the sheriff driving around with a bullhorn was saying.  (The sheriff was making sure that everyone knew we should prepare to evacuate in case they missed the cell phone message, and the key thing that I misheard is that people who need a lot of time should go now.) The fire then grew to about a 1000 acres before it was officially stopped. I will never let a fire fighter buy his own drink from now on. 

However, just before going outside and learning that we were probably going to be OK, there were about a million thoughts racing through my head about how inadequately I had prepared for the possible endings. Now, I thought I was prepared (I had a list! I had a portable backup drive!) but what was most missing from my emergency planning: For a long-time hodler, life is going to change. Your spouse might develop a serious medical issue, and your parent might start showing signs of dementia. You might need to take care of an injured spouse during evacuation, and you will have precisely zero time to allot to your wallet backup plan, because (trust me on this): What is ultimately important becomes screamingly obvious during such moments, and it turns out that btc is not at the top of your list. 

Memorizing passphrases etc is good and all, but you are going to age too. You may suffer an injury in the disaster you are escaping from and you yourself will start experiencing memory loss. So whatever password is only in your head? Definitely rethink that strategy.

That drive you left with an aging parent? They did not know (or did not remember) that you thought it was important. They are preparing to sell their home and downsize, so it went into the trash. (This was roughly true in my case, as I found out later that week. That would have been a bad surprise.)

How about where you are going to escape to? Cell phone service was essentially dead. There are bars on the phone (the cell towers are active) but within certain cells you cannot get data or a phone call out. I hope that 911 service was still there (I sure as hell wasn’t going to test it without an actual emergency, those guys were full of them already) and that is why the cell service was alive at all. So you will need some type of offline map. You may think you know the roads, but imagine everyone in your area leaving: Do you know the side roads? How far away?  As you probably heard, there were cases were folks needed to walk away from their cars. This happened because those particular roads were funnels with no productive side streets to utilize. In one report, LAFD told people to get out of their cars to escape the flames and then the fire depts bulldozed them out of the way, and in another report, folks considered heading to the beach in order to escape the flames. 

There is even the case that you are not allowed into your home: When coming back from the hike, I already smelled the smoke. But a little while later, and our path would have been blocked. Does your backup plan include geodiverse recovery? It very much needs to. 

To give you a sense of the blindness that will occur as you are trying to calmly exit and not panic: My backup USB was just a little further down on the shelf. It is now part of a go-bag that I will keep and review every N months (N=6? I think), so that there is one less item to grab. 

So in summary, there are three cases:

• When you are away and your house evaporates for some reason: Have a geodiverse backup, independent of people if possible.
• When there is no time to pack: Grab your go-bag, btc backup should be in it.
• When there is time to pack: Grab your go-bag with your btc backup, have a written list of other things to pack. The top of the list should be things you grab first in case you don't have time to grab them all.

What will happen to BTC Price on day of inaugaration?

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I have held some BTC in cold storage for multiple cycles. We could see a Bear as usual later this year, or possibly a Supercycle. I have decided to dust off the old wallet and trade my BTC utilizing reliable Technical Analysis. If we have a Bear cycle I should end up with more BTC at the bottom, and if we see a Supercycle my TA should keep me in the game.

My original plan was to move it to a Fidelity Brokerage and trade FBTC, but the problem with that is FBTC only trades 8 hours each day (at best). To do this with more precision I think I need to trade BTC with a Coinbase or with a Fidelity Crypto account.....

I have been backtesting my TA, and I'll do roughly 40 trades over 500 days starting in June.

So 40 trades using either Fidelity Crypto, or Coinbase.

Which would be the least costly?

Which would be more secure?

Thanks a million!

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I get the supply and demand impacts of the U.S. holding BTC as a reserve currency and how it would trigger other governments and businesses to hold BTC.

Wouldn’t the USD be strengthened if the U.S. government decides to hold larger amounts of BTC in a strategic reserve thus putting downward pressure on BTC in terms of USD?

The fed keeping interest rates high strengthens the USD

The trump administration (the pro crypto people he has appointed) having a much better understanding of fiat currency and the impacts of printing money on inflation of the USD also strengthens USD if it leads to better policies.

Is the supply and demand situation enough to overcome the strengthening USD to still meet these price targets of $500,000+ floating around? Maybe it makes more sense for people who don’t have access to USD to hold BTC than those that deal with USD everyday.

Stronger USD puts pressure on BTC price when expressed in terms of USD.

Btw, I’m a huge bitcoin bull, just asking questions.

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