Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

It's the 4th Annual "Guess the Low" contest. Here are the rules:

1. The time window is 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 UTC to 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 UTC.
2. What is your guess for the lowest price during that window? (Price is in US$, and comes from Coinbase.)
3. You get one guess.
4. Guesses must be messaged to me, NOT sent as a reply to this post.
5. Guesses must be in $100 increments, in round $100 amounts (i.e. $99900, $102300, etc.)
6. Included with your guess must be the instruction "higher" or "lower". If your guess has already been entered, your guess will be moved to the next available slot, higher or lower, based on your instruction. (If you guess $99900, but $99900 is already taken, I will move your guess to the next available slot, based on your "higher or lower".)
7. Guesses will be accepted until 11 Dec 2024 00:00:00 UTC.
8. You must submit an actual number, not "Whatever the open is on 1 Jan".
9. I reserve the right to toss your entry if you're a pain in the ass about it or don't follow the rules.

The person with the closest guess will get their choice of 0.0005 BTC or $50 worth of BTC at the price at the close of the contest. Once all the entries are in, I will post the guesses here. I will include my guess as well.

Note that the increment rule has changed! Your guess needs to end with at least 2 zeros!

EDIT: Rule #6 is a rule, not a suggestion! Include "higher" or "lower"!

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• Discussion related to recent events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• General questions about altcoins

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• All regular rules for this subreddit apply, except for number 2. This, and only this, thread is exempt from the requirement that all discussion must relate to bitcoin trading.
• This is for high quality discussion of altcoins. All shilling or obvious pumping/dumping behavior will result in an immediate one day ban. This is your only warning.
• No discussion about specific ICOs. Established coins only.

If you're not sure what kind of discussion belongs in this thread, here are some example posts. News, TA, and sentiment analysis are great, too.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

• Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group and check out the #altcoins channel
• Daily Discussion for bitcoin only: Daily Discussion
• Prior Altcoin Discussion: Altcoin Discussion

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

The so called “crypto winter” of 2022 shocked many new investors of crypto, but the history of Bitcoin tells us these retractions are quite normal-healthy, even. They seem to occur approximately a year after Bitcoin hits ATH for that 4 year cycle. Here are some notable past retractions.

1. December 2013 : Bitcoin = $1000.

December 2014: Bitcoin = $375.(62% drop)

2.December 2017 : Bitcoin = $17,000. December 2018 : Bitcoin = $3,200.(80% drop)

3.November 2021 : Bitcoin = $64,000. November 2022: Bitcoin = $16,000.(75% drop)

So why does this happen? And will it happen this current cycle?

The why:

For each price retraction, you can potentially argue for unique reasons why they occurred. For example, in 2022 the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 7 times, from nearly 0 to 4.25-4.50%.

But in general, I believe the reliable timing of these price retractions (admittedly with only 3 data points) signal that they occur due to pure crowd psychology and the fact that demand side buying pressure is difficult to sustain over long periods of time. Remember that demand typically increases approx. one year prior to halving and at this point in the cycle, increased demand needs to be sustained for nearly 3 continuous years to keep increasing price.

The factors at ATH are:

1. Investors begin taking profits.
2. People who bought near the top due to FOMO (and have little regard for fundamentals) see this correction due to selling pressure and panic sell, fueling further losses.
3. The news cycle starts to report on the “bubble bursting,” often reporting headlines without proper context (“Bitcoin down 35%!” Without stating the time period it was down 35%)
4. Many investors of Bitcoin are aware of the 4 year cycle. And while we collectively prepare for the post halving bull run, as price reaches a hypothetical ATH, it’s every man for himself in terms of exit strategy. You take profits based on your own unique financial situation. Demand side pressure slowly decreases, and the price trades sideways for months, followed by slow losses but constant losses each month.

Conclusion: So will we see another price retraction this cycle?

Answer: Most likely, yes. But it depends on why you believe they occur. If you believe, as I do, that price retractions are fundamentally due to 2 things-The difficulty in sustaining increased demand side buy pressure over 3 continuous years and basic crowd psychology-

Then, yes, a huge price retraction is coming one year after BTC hits ATH. If Bitcoin maxes out at 150k in December 2025, history tells us that December 2026 could reveal a Bitcoin price of $50,000 (65% drop.).

If you believe that each price retraction was unique in nature, then no, there may not be one this cycle.

Cheers!

I’m sure everyone on here has seen the various graphs out there showing how the price of Bitcoin has moved over the years and how there is a pattern that is expected to continue - highs and lows and imminent highs after the halving events etc.

Can anyone foresee a situation where this trend/pattern is broken due to all of the things that have happened and are due to happen? E.g some of the most wealthy and powerful companies in the world getting involved in Bitcoin like Blackrock, the Cynthia Lummis bill that proposes that the US gov purchase 200,000 bitcoins every year for 5 years. And then there is the other stuff that will be good for the crypto industry more generally, Gensler resigning and being replaced with a more crypto-friendly head, companies like Ripple being unshackled after the court case comes to an end.

There is a lot of positive things happening right now for crypto and due to happen, but will it really be enough to send the crypto industry soaring and establish it as the 12th sector of the S&P500, like Kevin O’Leary has predicted?

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

I have a pension with a former employer that is unfortunately going to be locked into a LIRA. I wanted to just buy Bitcoin but here we are!

I currently have a generic higher risk portfolio picked by SunLife. I would like to pick my own investments and am looking at MSTR. Would you allocate the LIRA to just MSTR? What other companies have bitcoin or are likely to have Bitcoin on their balance sheet? Any industries that would be aligned with Bitcoin that would be good investments? Any other advice?

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

BTC in-depth analysis

Hello friends, After careful calculations, these are my inferences: 💹💲

2012 pre-halving peak price - $2.54 (28/11/2011)

2012 halving peak price - $12.4 (28/11/2012) (4.88 times increase pre to halving)

2012 post-halving peak price - $1007 (28/11/2013) (396 times pre to post & 81 times halving to post)

Actual peak price - $1120 (from 07/12/2013 until 06/04/2017) 📈 (Took 1225 days from post halving or 1590 days from halving and took 5.35 years from pre halving)

TOTAL 5.35 yr for peak

2016 pre-halving peak price - $269.7 (09/07/2015)

2016 halving peak price - $663 (09/07/2016) (2.46 times increase pre to halving)

2016 post-halving peak price - $2550 (09/07/2017) (9.45 times pre to post & 3.84 times halving to post)

Actual peak price - $19137 (from 16/12/2017 until 16/12/2020) (took 160 days from post halving or 525 days from halving or 890 days(2.43 yrs) from pre halving and took 5.5 year📈

TOTAL 5.5 yr for peak

2020 pre-halving peak price - $7200 (11/05/2019)

2020 halving peak price - $8580 (11/05/2020) (1.19 times increase pre to halving)

2020 post-halving peak price - $56612 (11/05/2021) (7.86 times pre to post & 6.6 times halving to post)

Actual peak price - $67500 (from 08/11/2021 until 15/08/2024) (took 181 days from post halving or 546 days from halving or 911 days(2.49 yrs) from pre halving and took 5.4 year 💹

TOTAL 5.4 yr for peak

2024 pre-halving peak price - $28830 (19/04/2023)

2024 halving peak price - $63500 (19/04/2024) (2.2 times increase pre to halving)

2024 post-halving peak price - 19/04/2025 $180,000 to $220,000 (Prediction) ?

Anytime before april 2025 BTC will hit $180k to $220k ?💹

Actual peak can be $350k before november 2025?💹

What do you guys think of this?

...

Some time ago, I got interested in the Bank of America calculation of the multiplier. Many people assumed that knowing the multiplier would enable you to calculate a future price by simple multiplication of the net amount of dollars invested. I posted a calculation showing that using their multiplier was not so simple, and the price goes as the square root of the total dollars invested.

So as we approach $100K/btc, I was curious how things have played out over nearly a year. I am going to assume that the total dollars locked into bitcoin for the multiplier is equal to the total ETF investment given here ($30.8B). Also, I'm going to add in the total MSTR investment as given here ($16.5B), and since I don't have the full MSTR ownership history, we're going to assume it all happened this year, which is an overestimate, but since my total investment is ETF+MSTR only, hopefully the overestimate captures some of the other investment that is being ignored.

With those (somewhat crappy) assumptions, and using the BoA multiplier value of 135, the price predicted is $147K per bitcoin.

OK, that's pretty far off. What could contribute to the error?

1. My overestimate of MSTR ownership happening all in the current year
2. The multiplier as calculated by BoA is too high
3. TheRe ARe EvIL mAnIpUlaTORs KEePING ThE PriCE DoWn!!1!

My best guess is reason 2, so I can turn around the calculation and use a current price of $97K and solve for the multiplier instead. which turns out to be close to 50 at a price of $47K.

I found it to be an interesting way of looking at price prediction in any case, and I have to wonder what price discovery is going to look like above $100K because I find it difficult to believe that BoA's multiplier is going continue to make any sense if the price accelerates higher.

Edit: To /u/FreshMistletoe point below, there's another way to look at it. Assuming that the multiplier is indeed 135, then another implication is that the total locked-up investment into bitcoin has increased by only $17B, implying that there has been about $30B of sales from lettuce-hands.

Hi Guys,

I’m thinking of selling at 100k. But since there so many sell orders at 100k. I’ll probably sell it at 99k.

When BTC hit 100k, I’m assuming there going to be so many mainstream media news.

Problem is I think it going to hit 100k, then dip and I buy it at a lower price.

Or do you think it going to hit 100k and still go up do to the market news craze.

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

I made a spreadsheet with the closing prices of BTC every day since 1/1/2018 to perform some analysis on the data. Mostly for fun, because predicting how the market goes is a complete gamble, but I found my results an interesting find. Maybe others will point out the flaws or maybe it's more interesting than I think 🤷🏻 but wanted to share it for discussion.

In my analysis, I determined which day of the week was most likely to have BTC price rise and which would most likely fall. Of the 2,518 data points (days), here are the numbers I have (#rise/#fall):

Monday (181/185)

Tuesday (190/176)

Wednesday (198/167)

Thursday (170/195)

Friday (191/174)

Saturday (207/158)

Sunday (196/169)

Using this data, I determined the probabilities of rise/fall for each day of the week to find which days are most likely to rise/fall, here are those results in order of most likely to rise:

Saturday (56.71%) - best day

Wednesday (54.25%)

Sunday (53.70%)

Friday (52.33%)

Tuesday (51.91%)

Monday (49.45%)

Thursday (46.58%) - worst day

My personal results of this analysis: I started trading BTC 3 weeks ago. By day trading with $150, I've earned about $16 (with fees accounted for) and paid about $20 in trading fees. Whereas if I kept the SATS I bought originally, they'd have gained about $49 in value. Therefore, my ultimate takeaway is that day trading offers a way to keep the money in circulation, possibly the ability to keep money safer from the market drops, but in the end also shields you from potential long term gains as well.

I wanted to perform this analysis to compare potential of day trading to long term investments and out of curiosity. My takeaway is that weekends are generally great for price increases, and generally price will dip before and after the weekend. That said, statistics can be bullshit and there could be any number of other factors haha but I thought it was interesting nonetheless. Thoughts?

Edit: had Friday in the wrong place in my final list lol

I’ll admit, I was skeptical about Bitcoin at first. It sounded too abstract, too volatile, and honestly, too good to be true. But over the years, as I’ve watched the financial world evolve and crumble in certain areas, I’ve come to realize something: it’s never a bad time to buy Bitcoin. Let me explain why.

Bitcoin is more than just a digital coin; it’s a hedge. Against inflation, against the instability of traditional markets, against the uncertainties of a centralized financial system that can be manipulated. While governments print money endlessly, eroding the value of every dollar I save, Bitcoin operates on a fixed supply. Only 21 million will ever exist, period. There’s no quantitative easing, no bailouts, no central authority pulling strings. It’s a foundation built on scarcity and trust in the code.

Then there’s the growing adoption. I’ve seen major companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, countries experimenting with making it legal tender, and even my tech-savvy friends starting to take it seriously. These aren’t random trends—they’re signals of a paradigm shift. Every day, Bitcoin inches closer to mainstream acceptance, and I want to be ahead of that curve.

People always say, “But it’s so volatile!” Sure, it can spike or crash in the short term, but zoom out. Look at its history. Over the years, the trend is clear: upward. It’s like planting a tree; you don’t panic over a windy day if you know that tree will bear fruit for decades. The dips? I see them as buying opportunities, not setbacks.

What really gets me, though, is the freedom Bitcoin offers. It’s mine—completely. No bank can freeze it, no government can seize it. I’ve always wanted my money to be just that: mine. Bitcoin gives me that autonomy, and there’s a certain power in knowing I’m part of a decentralized network that transcends borders, time zones, and middlemen.

So yeah, Bitcoin isn’t just an investment to me—it’s a belief in a better way. Whether prices are high, low, or somewhere in between, I’ve realized that buying in is never a bad decision. It’s a vote for financial independence, for innovation, and for a future that I’m proud to be a part of.

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

There must be soooooo many pre-set sell orders at this price point. Many of them set years ago. But I guess many folks are deleting them too; because why sell when it’s one way traffic at the moment?

Still, there should be a slow down between now and 110. After that there’s no psychological barriers left until a million.

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

The Bitcoin weekly/daily chart is a picture perfect cup and handle playing out.

According to TradingView's auto chart pattern tool the target is 124K!

The cup and handle consists of an overall uptrend, a pullback/consolidation forming the cup, the handle, and then the breakout at the neckline.

In this case, the neckline is around 68K, and the bottom of the cup is around 16K, subtracting these gives you 52K.

The target price is the difference of the bottom of the cup and the neckline (52K) added to the neckline breakout zone, which is 68K.

52K + 68K = 120K

While this is slightly off from the exact TradingView target price of 124K, that is how you can calculate it manually.

I’m bullish on bitcoin and Microstrategy, and I want to understand the down sides/risks of buying their leveraged ETF. I already have MSTR for a long term hold, so why not put a significant amount of side cash into a the 2x leveraged MSTX etf and sell in 6-9 months near the top of the bull run?

I understand there’s an expense ratio of 1.29%. If they’re giving me 2x gains though, 1.29% off the top doesn’t hurt.

Is there some other factor besides the expense ration that makes me lose money over time that I’m not aware of?

I know I’d get wiped out if it fell by 50% and that the losses are larger, but assuming MSTR goes up, isn’t MSTX a good short term trade?

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

What’s your strategy?

First I was planning on just holding for years without selling anything, but in the last few days I’ve been thinking more and more about trying to sell when a top is felt / indicators point to a top, and then wait for the bear market to buy back in and repeat next cycle.

What are you guys doing? Are you just gonna hold without trying to take profit and buy back in at the bear market or are you gonna try to sell at or near the top and buy back in later?

Just some food for thought.

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the day's events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group